This weekly roundup thread is intended for all culture war posts. 'Culture war' is vaguely defined, but it basically means controversial issues that fall along set tribal lines. Arguments over culture war issues generate a lot of heat and little light, and few deeply entrenched people ever change their minds. This thread is for voicing opinions and analyzing the state of the discussion while trying to optimize for light over heat.
Optimistically, we think that engaging with people you disagree with is worth your time, and so is being nice! Pessimistically, there are many dynamics that can lead discussions on Culture War topics to become unproductive. There's a human tendency to divide along tribal lines, praising your ingroup and vilifying your outgroup - and if you think you find it easy to criticize your ingroup, then it may be that your outgroup is not who you think it is. Extremists with opposing positions can feed off each other, highlighting each other's worst points to justify their own angry rhetoric, which becomes in turn a new example of bad behavior for the other side to highlight.
We would like to avoid these negative dynamics. Accordingly, we ask that you do not use this thread for waging the Culture War. Examples of waging the Culture War:
-
Shaming.
-
Attempting to 'build consensus' or enforce ideological conformity.
-
Making sweeping generalizations to vilify a group you dislike.
-
Recruiting for a cause.
-
Posting links that could be summarized as 'Boo outgroup!' Basically, if your content is 'Can you believe what Those People did this week?' then you should either refrain from posting, or do some very patient work to contextualize and/or steel-man the relevant viewpoint.
In general, you should argue to understand, not to win. This thread is not territory to be claimed by one group or another; indeed, the aim is to have many different viewpoints represented here. Thus, we also ask that you follow some guidelines:
-
Speak plainly. Avoid sarcasm and mockery. When disagreeing with someone, state your objections explicitly.
-
Be as precise and charitable as you can. Don't paraphrase unflatteringly.
-
Don't imply that someone said something they did not say, even if you think it follows from what they said.
-
Write like everyone is reading and you want them to be included in the discussion.
On an ad hoc basis, the mods will try to compile a list of the best posts/comments from the previous week, posted in Quality Contribution threads and archived at /r/TheThread. You may nominate a comment for this list by clicking on 'report' at the bottom of the post and typing 'Actually a quality contribution' as the report reason.
Jump in the discussion.
No email address required.
Notes -
Something interesting is happening in Mexico. I will preface by saying this is a fact-finding point of analysis at this time but seems interesting. I have not yet made up an opinion on the situation.
Today Mexico elected Claudia Sheinbaum. Despite being widely expected Mexico etfs and markets took a huge dive. EWW appears to be one of the more popular etfs and was down 11% today. Milei and Trump each had big day 1 sell-offs but if my memory is correct both after winning elections had calm and relatively unchanged equity indexes by the close of U.S. trading.
Sheinbaum is from the same political party that has been running Mexico - AMLO. The big difference is the election was more of a landslide than expected. Super-majorities in Congress that will be able to pass whatever they want. She is even being called by the U.S. msm as a lifelong leftist. Her grandparents when they left Europe were both Jewish and communists.
On the plus side she was mayor of Mexico City and achieved a 10-15% reduction in murder (I usually think murder data is trustworthy). She does appear to be smart and technocratic but very left. I believe I saw her show support for Palestine and there is talk she will be friendly with Venezuela, Cuba, and Russia.
The other interesting thing to me is a Jewish (secular) women feels very odd as a national candidate to me in Mexico. No Spanish or indigenous roots. And Mexico’s Jewish population is extremely small (though as always there are some big hitters). Which feels very odd to me for a society to elect such an outsider (maybe Obama is close?). Also I guess she’s had some birther style attacks.
I talked to a few Mexican friends. One said he hated her and she was a communists, also said she wasn’t Jewish which surprised me as I thought most people considered Jewish an ethnicity. The other seems more open-minded.
Trump being elected could make negotiations between them tense since they are opposites on the political spectrum.
As far as markets go I want to figure out how she will govern. Mexico does seem to have some tailwinds with reshoring so the discount today looks interesting. The counter is the degree of the election victory means she has a mandate so if she does have leftist instincts I think there is a risks Mexico ends up on an Argentina or Venezuela path for a while. If you feel confident you can underwrite her politics will be more of a technocrat with leftist vibes/rhetoric but largely AMLO continuation then it’s an interesting time to pick up Mexico exposure at a discount.
https://x.com/BrazilBrian/status/1797627767808294933
https://www.nytimes.com/2024/06/03/world/americas/claudia-sheinbaum-jewish-mexico-president.html
I noticed the crash today also. But if you zoom out, you see the Mexican market trades at roughly the same level it did in November, so it's not really that big of a dip.
Zoom out further, and you'll see that, like most international markets, Mexico has limped along since 2007, trading mostly flat since then.
I trust the Mexican stock market about as much as I do the Chinese, Brazilian, or Colombian markets. Which is to say: not at all. I'll invest, but companies need to SHOW ME THE MONEY in terms of dividends and buybacks. Of course, socialists are always making things tough for companies who wish to reward shareholders. They don't want to see precious dollar reserves leaving the country and will often interfere to force companies to "reinvest" rather than make payments. Both Xi in China and Lula in Brazil have personally intervened in this way recently, tanking share prices.
Like most LatAm countries, Mexico seems set up for immense success if they can only kick the socialism habit which periodically sets them back by decades. With a near supermajority for AMLO's successor, it would appear that Mexico could once again belong to a leftist uniparty. The last one ruled for 71 years. I wouldn't be bullish on their stock market.
Nasdaq went 14 years without a new high. It’s not uncommon for a market to have droughts of that long usually going from high valuations to lower valuations while still having internal growth. And then doing a new cycle to high valuations. Also I am not positive on what was in the index back then but I would guess a lot of mining and banking back then. Today it’s 30% consumer defensive. It traded 9-10 today. Mining and banking have sucked in any country. Change in industry composition within the index is likely.
I did try to leave it open ended. I was rather confused when I saw it down 10% today. Admittedly, the politics look a little scary for investors here. 10 pe with the U.S. booming and a real desire by U.S. corporations to near shore is my counter.
Yeah, most developing countries only have 3 kinds of stocks: banks, resource extraction, and telecom.
In light of my above comment, that's interesting. Do you have a favorite Mexican stock?
Looks like it’s still 50% materials, banks, and telecom but I bet that is still down a ton. Often it’s 100%.
I only looked today because it was interesting. My guess is if you bought today or tomorrow on election news and you bet that she won’t be a crazy commie and are right you probably get something like a 30% 1 year return. 10-12% discount from the election. I am seeing 10-12% expected earnings growth. And if the market rerates to she is a reasonable person you probably get 1-2 turns in valuation gains from pre-election. Maybe lose a little on the currency since I am guess they have higher inflation. Of course her political bias are not mine but today they priced in she could be dangerous. I do not know if she is dangerous.
On Twitter today is the day people are asking questions. There should be people answer questions in the next few days.
More options
Context Copy link
More options
Context Copy link
More options
Context Copy link
More options
Context Copy link
More options
Context Copy link