Do you have a dumb question that you're kind of embarrassed to ask in the main thread? Is there something you're just not sure about?
This is your opportunity to ask questions. No question too simple or too silly.
Culture war topics are accepted, and proposals for a better intro post are appreciated.
Jump in the discussion.
No email address required.
Notes -
The usual consensus is that VP picks don't meaningfully alter the likelihood of a given candidate winning the US general election. There are some widely recognised exceptions, like Sarah Palin hurting John McCain's chances in 2008 (although he was facing an uphill battle anyway), and Biden picking Kamala Harris in 2020 to appeal to black voters. But the accepted wisdom is that they don't matter.
With both candidates being so old this time around, are people likelier this time to take therunning mates into account when voting in November? Do there exist a non-negligible number of voters who would vote for Donald Trump to avoid Kamala Harris? Or e.g. people who might be inclined to vote for Trump but dislike his VP pick so much they don't want to risk being saddled with them after a year or two?
I'd disagree on both counts. Kamala Harris was cleverly picked by Biden because she was unpopular enough that party insiders couldn't try to force him to resign, while at the same time they can't block or force out the first black woman VP. Imagine if Spiro Agnew couldn't have been removed. Nixon would have finished his term.
Sarah Palin was viciously attacked because she was the only thing propping up McCain's lacklustre campaign and potentially blocking the first black president. If McCain had picked someone like Paul Ryan then Obama would have won by ten points.
If somehow the VP candidates are Gavin Newsom and Tim Scott I'd bet money against either Trump or Biden being president by 2026.
More options
Context Copy link
More options
Context Copy link