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Transnational Thursday for June 20, 2024

Transnational Thursday is a thread for people to discuss international news, foreign policy or international relations history. Feel free as well to drop in with coverage of countries you’re interested in, talk about ongoing dynamics like the wars in Israel or Ukraine, or even just whatever you’re reading.

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North Korea

Putin visited Pyongyang this week for a summit with Kim Jong-Un, signing a mutual aid pact and securing a vital supply of munitions for the war in Ukraine. South Korea is considering responding with their own arms deal, because apparently Koreans are some of the only people in the world who still know how to make artillery shells.

The Philippines

China and the Philippines continued their naval game of chicken around Second Thomas Shoal in the South China Sea, in a dispute that the Filipino government could at any moment drag the US into by invoking its mutual defense treaty.

Lebanon

Israel seems ready to launch a military offensive against Hezbollah in Lebanon, which would likely lead to a dramatic escalation in violence throughout the region, with more missile and drone exchanges with Iran and even at first glance unrelated nations caught in the crossfire.

Saudi Arabia

Over a thousand pilgrims have died from extreme heat on the hajj. And here I was worrying about political violence this year instead.

Belgium

The EU plans to impose tariffs on the import of Chinese EV's, following America's lead. Time will tell whether this saves domestic manufacturing or if we in the west will end up like the Soviets with their Ladas looking enviously across the iron curtain at all the shiny new vehicles their government wouldn't let them have.

Israel wouldn't likely do anything in Lebanon unless Hezbollah does something spectacularly stupid - and they have repeatedly shown that they want to keep it low-key for now. Israel hates the low-key harassment campaign and wants to decisively put end to it - but if they choose when to start, doing it while having their forces occupied in Gaza seems pointless. However, the official "take control" part of Gaza plan seems to be coming to completion, and once that is done and it moves to the "periodic cleanups" phase, Lebanon could very well be the next step. So I'd say not yet right now, but very possibly pretty soon, unless some unexpected development happens.