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Notes -
What's the makeup of the college of cardinals? How progressive is the median voter, I suppose?
The median cardinal is not an ideological voter and chooses who to support on the basis of patronage games, regional favoritism, and perceived administrative ability.
There are at any given time between 120 and 130 voting cardinals, and it takes a 2/3 majority to be elected pope. This means a block of 45 can veto a papal election and it takes 85 votes lined up to be sure about winning the next round. If there’s no 2/3 majority then there’s another round of voting, no runoff, no elimination, they just vote again. Typically major candidates drop out by recommending their supporters vote for a different candidate.
This conclave the largest block of voters in the first round is likely to be Müller’s faction of twenty or so ultra conservatives. Their chosen candidate, Erdö, is probably acceptable to 2/3 of the college of cardinals, but it’s very plausible that Zuppi, Pizzaballa, etc would be preferred. A very progressive candidate is unlikely to get to 2/3, but a merely liberal one probably could. Smart money is that the main anti-Parolin candidate eventually wins out, but I would hesitate to speculate which papabile becomes the main anti-Parolin candidate without a few rounds of voting first.
Just for context,Zuppi is the Archbishop of Bologna, president of the CEI and friend of the left-wing regional and local government in Emilia-Romagna.
His main policy is facilitating immigration from Africa, and political help for the Left/Greens.
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So, does that mean, chances are we get someone further to the right than Francis?
How do the cardinals feel about the latin mass and groups like the SSPX?
Good chance, yes. Cardinal Zuppi is a moderate liberal who has good chances, though- although he’s certainly more willing to include conservatives in his coalition.
Liberalizing regulations about the Latin mass is an easy way to win friends for a skilled machine politician in the Vatican and a major campaign promise for a conservative.
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