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Notes -
Hot Swap time?
On the All-In podcast, a couple of the podcasters have been making bold claims that Biden would be "hot-swapped" out for a different candidate (presumably Gavin Newsom) after the first debate. I thought their claims were pretty outlandish, but after last night they are seeming a lot more, um, inlandish.
I concur with a lot of the Mottizens below that Biden's performance was not that bad. I thought he landed some decent punches and fought Trump mostly to a draw. But expectations matter. Like most people here, I am well aware of Biden's state of decline, whereas perhaps the average voter is not. I was not expecting vigor, so was in no way shocked by Biden's lack of it. Furthermore, Mottizens tend to actually listen to the words that are said. Normies react more to feels. Biden's blank-eyed stare and gaped mouth said more than words ever could. If this was your first exposure to Biden in the last 4 years, it would be unsettling.
What I was shocked by was the immediate consensus by CNN's post-debate panel that Biden's performance was a disaster, and the immediate speculation about a new candidate. I had expected them to rally around their leader. There was a plausible argument to be made that Biden did okay. Instead, they threw him under the bus.
The timing of the debate certainly seems a bit suspicious. This was the earliest Presidential debate in some time (ever?). Conspicuously, it comes before the convention, but after the primaries. If Biden can be pressured to resign, the DNC will be able to handpick their preferred candidate without the pesky need for voters.
As Bill Ackman and others have pointed out on Twitter, everyone in Biden's inner circle knew that this was Biden's ability level in 2024. They didn't have to agree to a debate. Why did they send him out there to get slaughtered?Seen through this lens, Obama "helping" the elderly Biden off the stage a couple weeks ago take on a darker tone.
Shares in "Biden 2024 Democratic nominee" crashed during the debate and now trade at just 63%. Newsom is at 22% and Harris at 13%.
I don't know. All of this seems very conspiratorial. The real world is messy and boring. I doubt that the DNC are sitting around in a smoke-filled room, twirling their mustaches. But, however it shakes out, odds of Biden being replaced are shooting up. This seems very undemocratic. There was a time to replace Biden, and that was during the primaries. However it shakes out, the election season just got a lot more interesting.
I didn't see the debate, so I don't know how awful it went for Biden, and I don't generally follow presidential debates, but I just wanted to ask if it's possible that all of this might blow over, and no one will even think of it come next debate, or even in a week. Sure, if Biden is really on death's door, he'll probably appear in poor condition in future events, too. But on the other hand, politicians oscillate in their presentability sometimes, and it doesn't always bear out. People cling to the latest thing saying "this is the most important event ever!", and at least 80% of the time, it ends up not being the most important event ever. Other politicians have had weird moments before, like when Hillary suffered some sort of temporary mental break or heat stroke or something during an interview back in 2016ish (I can't seem to find the video) and seemed completely unaware of her surroundings for a minute or two.
I've said this before, but man, I wish we could pause time and not move forward into election season. No matter what the outcome is, I'm going to feel terrible.
It appears that the Democratic establishment has recovered and is backing Joe's horse again. They're going to try to memory hole this but there is still the matter of the second debate. I think it goes much like the first, but the spin will be fixed this time. Something along the lines of "Comeback Kid! Biden sparkles in second debate". And if Biden's performance was like last night's they might just pull it off.
But it's not impossible that it goes even worse. The poor guy must have trouble simply standing at a podium for two hours. He seems to be vanishing before our eyes. I have no idea how he makes it another year, let alone 4.5.
Well at least we have some interesting horse race aspects this time around.
In the end, I'm hoping for a Trump landslide as I think that's the only path that leads to introspection, and then hopefully healing. I've come to terms with him personally. He's a liar and a braggart with the attention span of a goldfish. But he's his own man, and he's not evil. And sometimes that's enough.
I really hope you are right. But the only introspection we got last time was "Trump's election proves the legacy of racism, sexism, colonialism, xenophobia, homophobia etc is real and strong and we need to feel bad/crush fascism"
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