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Thursday's debate was the gift that keeps on giving for political horse race junkies like me. 2024's campaign was shaping up to be the ultimate snooze-fest. Neither party fielded competitive primaries. Neither candidate provided any sort of vision for the future. Two geriatric candidates were fighting a rematch over a tiny sliver of undecided voters. Despite the heated rhetoric, it was boring.
Everything is different now, and this is shaping up to be one of the most dramatic campaign seasons in history.
Biden's chances to win the Democratic nomination keep plummeting. On PredictIt, he is down to 50%! Kamala Harris's stock is surging - now up to 33%.
But while many within the Democratic media complex have called for Biden to step down (he even lost Brian Stelter!) elected officials have been much more circumspect. Nearly all prominent Democrats continue to support Biden in public. The knives are being sharpened, favors are being called in, backroom deals are being made. But the party unity hasn't broken. Somebody (Obama maybe) will have to strike the first blow. Until then, it's far too risky to stick one's neck out.
Biden's political instincts are stronger than many give him credit for. I've mentioned before how he's used the SPR to keep gas prices down, knowing that simple things like that matter a lot. Now he has a new mantra. Trust no one. Increasingly relying on his wife Jill, he is now apparently bringing in Hunter as an advisor as well.
Biden only needs to last a few more weeks. To appear on the Ohio ballot, Democrats must nominate someone before August 7th. He just needs to run out the clock. Big public speeches or appearances are a no no, as every senior moment will now be dissected in minute detail. Once he's the nominee, the media will come back onside to save democracy.
In any case, I can't get enough of the drama. Make election season fun again.
I agree. I've been glued to the news after having been checked out for months. I recall a discussion on here several weeks if not months ago related to Biden and his age and competence. Someone said: "Call me when /r/neoliberal/ is ready to change horses". Well, that day has arrived.
The only observation I can offer that I havent seen discussed much is related to Jill and Hunter's role in all of this. It seems to be widely speculated that those two are the most vehemently against him dropping out. It would make sense considering those two perhaps stand to lose the most in the event of a Biden withdrawl. There was news today that Hunter is now sitting in on all of Biden's meetings. It seems very clear that Hunter's plan is to stick to his father like glue so that noone else can whisper in his ear that its time to quit.
What's been reported about Hunter's life is widely known, but it seems that Jill is being utterly exposed right now. There was another report that the Biden's have declined the White House mansion's resident staff. This is apparently extremely unusual. I dont know how this all works, but it sounds to me like this means that the Bidens do not let any cleaners or cooks into the residence, lest they might observe some damaging behavior by Biden.
I go back and forth on what I think will happen in the next few weeks, but as of right now, I think that Biden will not be withdrawing - mainly because his wife and son are making sure he stays on.
edit: here is a supposed internal poll showing stat of the race as of Sunday and alternative candidate polling. the full PDF is in the replies.
https://x.com/umichvoter/status/1808204695548448807
Crazy story if true.
Since I gotta throw a Roman Empire reference into everything, this paranoia reminds me of the book "I, Claudius". Read it, if you haven't!
The emperor Augustus has had a long and prosperous reign, but his scheming wife Livia wants to kill him to ensure that her son Tiberius inherits the throne. Augustus is afraid of assassination so resorts to eating only fruit that he picks off trees in the garden himself. Ultimately, Livia offs him by poisoning a fig on the tree and convincing him to eat it.
Of course, in this case, it's not Biden's wife that wants him gone, it's a pack of hyenas in his own party. And instead of killing him, they just want him to be seen looking senile in public. Every public appearance from now until the nomination is a potential trap. Paranoia is warranted.
Seconding the recommendation for I, Claudius.
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