This weekly roundup thread is intended for all culture war posts. 'Culture war' is vaguely defined, but it basically means controversial issues that fall along set tribal lines. Arguments over culture war issues generate a lot of heat and little light, and few deeply entrenched people ever change their minds. This thread is for voicing opinions and analyzing the state of the discussion while trying to optimize for light over heat.
Optimistically, we think that engaging with people you disagree with is worth your time, and so is being nice! Pessimistically, there are many dynamics that can lead discussions on Culture War topics to become unproductive. There's a human tendency to divide along tribal lines, praising your ingroup and vilifying your outgroup - and if you think you find it easy to criticize your ingroup, then it may be that your outgroup is not who you think it is. Extremists with opposing positions can feed off each other, highlighting each other's worst points to justify their own angry rhetoric, which becomes in turn a new example of bad behavior for the other side to highlight.
We would like to avoid these negative dynamics. Accordingly, we ask that you do not use this thread for waging the Culture War. Examples of waging the Culture War:
-
Shaming.
-
Attempting to 'build consensus' or enforce ideological conformity.
-
Making sweeping generalizations to vilify a group you dislike.
-
Recruiting for a cause.
-
Posting links that could be summarized as 'Boo outgroup!' Basically, if your content is 'Can you believe what Those People did this week?' then you should either refrain from posting, or do some very patient work to contextualize and/or steel-man the relevant viewpoint.
In general, you should argue to understand, not to win. This thread is not territory to be claimed by one group or another; indeed, the aim is to have many different viewpoints represented here. Thus, we also ask that you follow some guidelines:
-
Speak plainly. Avoid sarcasm and mockery. When disagreeing with someone, state your objections explicitly.
-
Be as precise and charitable as you can. Don't paraphrase unflatteringly.
-
Don't imply that someone said something they did not say, even if you think it follows from what they said.
-
Write like everyone is reading and you want them to be included in the discussion.
On an ad hoc basis, the mods will try to compile a list of the best posts/comments from the previous week, posted in Quality Contribution threads and archived at /r/TheThread. You may nominate a comment for this list by clicking on 'report' at the bottom of the post and typing 'Actually a quality contribution' as the report reason.
Jump in the discussion.
No email address required.
Notes -
Some not-bare links, words, and a Scott watch.
1 a. https://www.astralcodexten.com/p/prediction-markets-suggest-replacing
First, a Scott post on Biden, debate, and a personal accounting of The Big Reveal. The curtain drawn across the stage to lay bare Biden's cognitive decline for the world to see. This is the common framing and narrative, anyway. He writes:
He then suggests Biden drops out, dropping Kamala as well, and throwing in some "purple-state Governor". Like Scott, this seems rather late in the game to me. There is still plenty of time to the election, as I'm sure the Biden loyalists are also telling themselves, so anything can happen. Who knows, maybe Biden gets a war? Wars are good for incumbents.
1 b. https://eigenrobot.substack.com/p/come-on-man
Eigenrobot, Twitter poaster extraordinaire, has some good thoughts looking at the same theme, but with regards to the media. He lays some groundwork with articles speaking of Biden's potential decline as an elderly gentleman some dating back to 2017.
Finishing with something that's been mentioned here many times:
Biden is old! This reaction with CNN anchors exclaiming, "how could the Whitehouse aides forsake us" is funny. Journalists have gotten worse at their jobs, that's how. There was space and time to talk about Biden's age and its potential impact it may have on the election. All well within the Overton window, even. Some journalists did write about it-- even those in Respectable Publications. That this idea was pushed into right-wing meme territory is an apparent, notable, visible failure for journalists. Not only do they feel lied to, they feel inadequate that they allowed themselves to be lied to. An outrage!
I listened to this Q&A with Scott and Nate Silver at the allegedly controversial Manifest conference that happened in June. There's some interesting tidbits in there if you're interested in prediction markets, Nate Silver+election models, AI risk, and so on. Perhaps not anything new for your ears that these two haven't written about.
The time stamp shows Scott answering a question about AI and how that may play into the risk of future wars. He first says that wars between great powers have a good chance of going nuclear and that is bad. However you want to define "good chance", fine. Then he goes on to say how it is his impression that "often [wars between great powers happen because] everybody was trying to do brinksmanship and made a mistake".
Scott is answering questions off the cuff in an informal, impromptu format. He's not some foreign policy wonk and neither am I. Brinkmanship is a thing. Some conflicts may escalate to unwanted, outright hostilities due to brinkmanship, political grandstanding, or get accidentally'd into full blown war. My impression is that escalation is usually not a mistake, though. Ukraine is not some exception as Scott suggests.
Escalation can be a proactive, reactive, or provocative measure to induce war. Escalation can be seen as a deterrent by one side, then used as a provocation to the other, sure, but I don't think it's fair to call these things mistakes. They are realities. Over stepping, going a little to far, these things can happen between states as they do people. Maybe he means a war that led to nuclear exchange would be considered a mistake. Which is probably true if it happens.
That Eigenrobot post really nails it. I had a relatively tame disagreement with someone who has since deleted their response back on the reddit version a few years ago about this exact scenario, and was noting the markers of early-stage alzheimers back in 2020 due to a member of the extended family who has been going through roughly the same thing at roughly the same pace. I won't claim some sort of magical prognosticating powers, only just being willing to observe publicly available information and not be spun (a childhood stutter that reemerged in his late 70s my stuttering ass.)
But the debate was just too hard to explain away. Beyond the clear aphasia, the vacant expression, the weak and tremulous voice, the physical signs are impossible to ignore. That's not just the first lady helping the president take a single step down off a short stage, but a staffer immediately stepping up to provide a second bit of support. This is the way you treat an 81 year-old man who definitely has a history of falling when unaided, and those falls have not been reported out of the White House at all. I'm not talking stumbles on the stairs to AF1 or tripping over a sandbag at a speech, but the kind of falls that accompany the middle and late stages of alzheimers.
I'm not even mad at Biden, his grasping nursemaid wife, his corrupt family, or the staffers and flunkies who honored the omerta on saying what was really happening. I'm pissed that we went four years without anyone in the media thinking, "Boy, I could really make a name for myself by reporting on how Biden's gait has notably changed within the last 18 months." Or, "It sure is weird that Biden keeps calling himself a Senator or Vice President and doesn't do public appearances at night. I should start digging." The first, second, and third question always seems to be "Will this help Trump/Republicans in any way? If so, better just ignore it."
Republicans, and Trump especially, are not more honest than Democrats. Such is the nature of the species homo politico. Except that Republicans/Trump mostly can't get away with it due to being forced to operate in enemy territory. Democrats, and the liberal portions of the federal machine, on the other hand . . . We just had four years of Trump Russia! Russia! Russia! followed by two years of Covid lies at the same time that the man at the helm of the ship of state was slowly (and then rapidly) turning into a root vegetable. Having a political press, intelligence apparatus, and bureaucratic state that is completely pliant to the will of one political party isn't just bad for the out party, it encourages deep rot in the benefitting party too. Occasionally that rot gets exposed to air.
More options
Context Copy link
More options
Context Copy link