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Notes -
An American Cincinnatus, he ain't.
The Democratic party's post-debate woes continue. In the last few days, talking heads seemed to be converging on a new consensus: Kamala Harris is the only way to beat Trump. First of all, she is the only candidate that can be hot-swapped in without having to build a whole new campaign infrastructure. More importantly, the intersectional implications of passing over a woman of color in 2024 are beyond the Democratic party's ability to contemplate. And, finally, Kamala is not polling worse than Biden.
Though the details of her career are cringe-worthy, and insults like "cackle" and "word salad" seem to attach themselves easily, Kamala is still mostly an unknown to the American people. A well-managed media campaign, which limits unscripted appearances, will be able to put her in the best light. It's only 4 months to the election. "I'm With Her 2.0". It just... might... work.
There's one problem: The dinosaur won't die.
At a rally in Wisconsin today, Biden said unequivocably that he won't be stepping aside
https://www.realclearpolitics.com/video/2024/07/05/president_biden_theyre_trying_to_push_me_out_of_the_race_im_staying.html
Yes, he did have another senior moment at the end there. But overall it was a forceful demonstration that he isn't going anywhere.
This complicates things considerably. The Democrats have about 4 weeks until state ballot deadlines force them to nominate a candidate. I do think Biden is right. Most Democrats want him gone. They voted for him in the primaries but now he's a liability. But how will they get rid of him? It's not so easy, especially without blackening the reputation of the party. Will the long-buried Biden hair-sniffing stories finally see the light of day? Or will the media come back to Biden's corner now that he's fighting back?
For what it’s worth, I don’t think Kamala would be too bad. I don’t think she’s especially smart or talented, but a lot of her most cringe appearances have been a consequence of her pretending to be someone she’s not, namely a mystic person of colour speaking truth to power. Ultimately I think she’s on the side of order and capital, and is probably a fair bit smarter than she’s been allowed to express on the campaign trail. I was mostly convinced of the above points by hard leftist friends who considered them disqualifying points, whereas to my mind they make her more plausible.
Of course, whether she’s able to run as a wonk and a cop is a different story. Democratic campaign incentives probably require her to play-act the role of mystic minority. But once in power, I think she could be pretty decent, and potentially far more autonomous than Biden.
She's a total unknown, IMO. What does she even believe? I haven't the slightest.
Assuming that she's a lightweight like everyone says, her presidency would be Biden 2.0 – a weak leader who just follows the consensus of their staff members, most of whom come from the wokest corners of society.
But maybe I'm wrong. Chester A. Arthur was also supposed to be a mere catspaw and he was apparently a pretty decent President.
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