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Notes -
The UK general election has largely completed
Labour wins, Sir Keir Starmer is the new British PM
Results as of 8am, 6 seats undeclared:
LAB: 410, CON: 119, Lib Dem: 71, SNP: 9, Reform: 4, Green: 4, Plaid Cymru: 4, Independents: 5
I've left off Northern Irish parties
In many ways, there are few surprises, with Labour taking a hefty majority as everyone predicted and the Tories suffering their worst result in seat count in their history. There are a few bigger themes:
Labour wins by default
Despite their hefty seat count, Labour's share of the vote amounted to only 34%. To put that into perspective, Corbyn's (one of the independent seats, FYI) 2019 campaign picked up 32% of the vote. Up against one of the least popular Tory governments in history, Starmer barely managed to beat the divisive former leader. Predictions of 40% vote shares and a complete Tory wipeout didn't come to pass.
A poll taken just a few days before the vote highlights the problem for Labour: the main reason for people to vote for them was to get rid of the Tories. There was no enthusiasm for Starmer or his policies. They now have a hefty majority and 5 years in which to change that, but there's no sign in any of their policies that they will actually be radical enough, nor do they have much freedom to move. The Tories left behind a historically high tax take while the level of government services was only seen to decline. Raising taxes further is never a popular move, but without more cash Labour's traditional approach of pumping money into the NHS or education has no possibility. Starmer could be bold on areas related to productivity, housing, pensions, or immigration, but there's just zero sign he'll do so. Labour's vote is brittle and the remaining Tories are already looking to 2029 as a good chance to regain power.
Zero Seats fails to materialize
On the Tory side, things are looking pretty good. Which is to say, it's a terrible result for them but far less damaging than some polls indicated. Talks of not even being the official opposition or being taken over by Reform look like pure fantasy now. It's a blow for right wingers, who had hoped to expel the more moderate elements, and there's a good chance the next leader will be another neoliberal.
4 seats for Reform is not a terrible result under First Past the Post, but with initial exit polls giving them as many as 13 it will look disappointing in the morning light. Farage is in parliament at the 7th time of asking, but the rules of the commons can be quite effective at muzzling troublesome voices - if you don't get called upon by the speaker, then you cannot participate unless you are the official opposition.
FPTP looks increasingly ill-suited
Reform's 4 seats came from 14% of the vote. This is double the vote share of the Green's but both ended with the same number of seats. The Lib Dems received only 12% but ended with 65 more seats than either. The major parties had little enthusiasm but still managed to shut out the smaller guys, but the distribution of seats looks increasingly ridiculous as more third parties start to gather support.
With the left expelled from Labour and the Tory party avoiding a Reform merge, the hope now for left and right wingers is that 2029 might spell the end for FPTP in a hung parliament situation.
Scottish nationalism crumbles, but rises for Welsh and Irish republicans
The best result of the night surely goes to Scotland, who were able to mostly expel the utterly atrocious SNP. For a long time, the Scottish nationalists coasted along on independence sentiment and being "not the Tories". This masked the fact that on practically every devolved measure, they underperformed even the disastrous UK government. Labour's weakness does offer them a glimmer of hope, but with independence sidelined it's hard to see a way back to their previous strengths for a generation.
Wales saw the reverse, with their nationalist party, Plaid Cymru, gaining 2 more seats. Welsh nationalism and independence are far less popular than the Scottish varieties ever were, but the SNP came to the fore by slowly building up support, and perhaps the same will work for Plaid?
Northern Ireland remains a basket case. The republican party, Sinn Fein, has become the largest in their government, but not through gaining seats. Instead the main unionist party, the DUP, lost seats to other challengers. You'll probably see some xitter users proclaiming that results show a rise in republicanism due to Sinn Fein being the largest party, but the reality is a lot of the results appear to be down to petty squabbles related to power sharing and other administration-related issues.
All that's left now is to see what Labour can do. Given the US and right wing slants of the Motte, I doubt we have more than 1 or 2 Labour voters here, but if any are out there it will be interesting to hear their thoughts
Any chance that they'll actually change that system? It seems ridiculous. Until now it mostly benefited Conservatives at the expense of labor and third parties, right?
The only possibility as I see it would be a 2029 election where Labour loses their majority and is forced to go into coalition with the Lib Dems, who put electoral reform as a condition of their support.
In 2010 Nick Clegg was bamboozled by Cameron into agreeing on a referendum on version of FPTP which was almost as disproportional as the current system, I can't see them making that mistake again. I would expect them to demand actual change to the voting system without a referendum that could go wrong.
It has happened before elsewhere.
I voted Reform, and I'm very annoyed about the vote : seat ratio, but I'd still be hesitant to rush headlong into changing our voting system on the basis of one freaky election. European countries with proportional voting don't seem to have significantly happier and more representative politics, and FPTP has mostly worked for 200 years. I think our problem boils down to the professionalisation of politics more than to our voting system. Having 4 parties of PPE graduates doing backdoor deals doesn't necessarily seem like an improvement.
If we had a democratic voter system, we wouldn't be in a situation where the two main parties agree on Open Borders and the public has to choose the lesser of two evils. Sure, the current system can indirectly force the Tories to move to the right when they see their votes going to Reform, but imagine what a Conservative-Reform coalition would look like! Farage as Immigration Minister, Tice as Minister for de-Wokifying Institutions or whatever. Instead, the public gets a choice between Islington dinner party guests with blue ties, and Islington dinner party guests with red ties.
I agree completely. But as I say, proportional voting doesn't seem to be sufficient for producing a democratic system (look at the Cordon Sanitaire in France, or the way that the AfD are treated) and I'm also aware that we've had our current parliamentary system for 300 years give or take and changing it based on a twenty-year crisis is a drastic step.
(Imagine a Lib Dem, Labour, Muslim Independents, Green and Conservative Wets coalition and shudder).
I mean, I get not liking it, but a coalition that gets 50% of the seats and around ~50% of the votes is not anti-democratic.
If the people who voted for those parties don't like the fact they made a grand coalition, they can vote for other parties who won't do that, until the far-right gains enough support a grand coalition isn't possible.
I don't know. On the one hand that's true, on the other... there's something off about having people whose ideologies and needs are utterly incompatible linking hands to make sure Those Awful People never get anything they want. It's naked warfare, and I think it's also damaging because you get governments that can't run the country because they don't agree on anything. Basically you get FPTP back again but more impenetrable.
Only if you assume that politics under proportional representation is a perfect market with no market failures. But imagine a situation where, for example, the professional classes treat anyone associated with a populist party like a leper. (Oh, how I wish this were a hypothetical...) That means that anyone with experience of government doesn't join the populist party but stays with a centrist party which is enforcing the cordon sanitaire. A hypothetical voter might want to vote for a party that is competent and has a populist manifesto, but they can't because circumstances prevent such a party from forming.
1.) Except they are compatible on the issue the far-right/populist/whatever word you want to call them has made the #1 issue - immigration/multiculturalism in general. So, if the main issue in politics is that, other disagreements can be put to the side. This is not new in coalitional politics, where people who disagree on issues that used to be important ally when a new issue pops up. Don't want people to ally over immigration, pro and anti? Don't make it the main issue.
2.) Sure, voters want all kinds of impossible things. The thing is, as I pointed out in another thread is the problem isn't nobody wants an anti-immigration party, they don't want an anti-immigration party with all the weird other right-wing issues connected as well. But, the issue is, many of the voters and most prominent supporters care deeply about the other right-wing policies, which is why many of these right-wing parties lose support once actually in a coalition government, because of a combination of having to compromise (which their supporters hate) and they prove themselves to be incompetent (which low-info voters dislike).
Again, I'm a left-wing SJW social democrat whatever, but I'll be happy to admit their is strong majority support for harsh immigration law in Europe...as long as the rest of the wackiness isn't pulled along behind it. A pro-Ukraine, pro-LGBT, pro-EU but anti-immigration party could do well, but the issue is many of the people behind these populist/right-wing/etc. parties also care about the other three things and being opposed to them. In both the UK & France, once it became obvious Reform & Le Pen's party was fairly anti-Ukraine, they lost support of a lot of soft right-leaning voters.
That's why Meloni has been largely successful in Italy - she's pro-NATO, pro-Ukraine, not all that socially conservative, and also hasn't gone full police state when it comes to immigration, because even many anti-immigrant voters don't want an open sort of what would end up being somewhat violent crackdown on immigrants. But, the base of these right-wing parties do so.
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