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Transnational Thursday for July 4, 2024

Transnational Thursday is a thread for people to discuss international news, foreign policy or international relations history. Feel free as well to drop in with coverage of countries you’re interested in, talk about ongoing dynamics like the wars in Israel or Ukraine, or even just whatever you’re reading.

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France's left coalition NPF appears to have won the election, with Macron's party in 2nd and the RN 3rd.

https://www.bbc.com/news/live/ck7gydwgvy8t

I haven't faintest clue about how the french electoral system works but perhaps Macron was correct to call an early election.

The NPF has promised to scrap the pension and immigration reforms passed by the current government, to set up a rescue agency for undocumented migrants and to facilitate visa applications.

It also wants to put caps on basic goods to combat the cost of living crisis and raise the minimum wage.

For all the "Europe surging to the right" scaremongering, it seems like the only outcome is always even more money for illegal migrants and leftists expanding their control over the state

As long as the cordon holds and the parties outside the cordon don't just win outright, parties outside the cordon gaining ground will force bigger and bigger coalitions to retain a majority, involving stranger bedfellows that are still inside the cordon (usually socialists and SJ radicals, because the cordon doesn't apply to them).

On what I imagine you see as the plus side, this tends to feed the parties outside the cordon, because conservative voters get pissed off about the within-cordon conservative parties obviously betraying them and start voting outside the cordon, which of course just feeds on itself. The obvious endpoints for this process look like "cordon is abandoned in order to stem the tide", "cordon is overwhelmed by absolute majority" or "all rightist parties consumed by outside-cordon, but this is less than a majority and socialists/SJers have power for a long while".