This weekly roundup thread is intended for all culture war posts. 'Culture war' is vaguely defined, but it basically means controversial issues that fall along set tribal lines. Arguments over culture war issues generate a lot of heat and little light, and few deeply entrenched people ever change their minds. This thread is for voicing opinions and analyzing the state of the discussion while trying to optimize for light over heat.
Optimistically, we think that engaging with people you disagree with is worth your time, and so is being nice! Pessimistically, there are many dynamics that can lead discussions on Culture War topics to become unproductive. There's a human tendency to divide along tribal lines, praising your ingroup and vilifying your outgroup - and if you think you find it easy to criticize your ingroup, then it may be that your outgroup is not who you think it is. Extremists with opposing positions can feed off each other, highlighting each other's worst points to justify their own angry rhetoric, which becomes in turn a new example of bad behavior for the other side to highlight.
We would like to avoid these negative dynamics. Accordingly, we ask that you do not use this thread for waging the Culture War. Examples of waging the Culture War:
-
Shaming.
-
Attempting to 'build consensus' or enforce ideological conformity.
-
Making sweeping generalizations to vilify a group you dislike.
-
Recruiting for a cause.
-
Posting links that could be summarized as 'Boo outgroup!' Basically, if your content is 'Can you believe what Those People did this week?' then you should either refrain from posting, or do some very patient work to contextualize and/or steel-man the relevant viewpoint.
In general, you should argue to understand, not to win. This thread is not territory to be claimed by one group or another; indeed, the aim is to have many different viewpoints represented here. Thus, we also ask that you follow some guidelines:
-
Speak plainly. Avoid sarcasm and mockery. When disagreeing with someone, state your objections explicitly.
-
Be as precise and charitable as you can. Don't paraphrase unflatteringly.
-
Don't imply that someone said something they did not say, even if you think it follows from what they said.
-
Write like everyone is reading and you want them to be included in the discussion.
On an ad hoc basis, the mods will try to compile a list of the best posts/comments from the previous week, posted in Quality Contribution threads and archived at /r/TheThread. You may nominate a comment for this list by clicking on 'report' at the bottom of the post and typing 'Actually a quality contribution' as the report reason.
Jump in the discussion.
No email address required.
Notes -
What's Biden's survival path? Manifold's currently putting him at 41% chance, but I'm not seeing a likely way for that to happen.
Things look to me like:
Democrats express displeasure.
Biden refuses to drop out.
Democrats adjust convention rules to free up delegates.
Delegates reject Biden.
Are people thinking that Democrats won't allow the convention to nominate someone other than Biden? Or that delegates will vote for Biden?
Neither of those seem especially likely to me, especially when Kamala's an easy default option to unify around, even if her reputation is that she's unpopular. So I guess I'm not seeing where it's coming from. Are there convention rules that are problematic? I'm wondering whether them meeting early due to the Ohio deadline being earlier is a factor, but Ohio moved it back, so they can just cancel their early meeting, right?
But, this is not the best development for the Trump campaign.
I continue to think Biden is more likely than not to hold on (and probably lose).
The easiest and cleanest way for democrats to remove him is for him to willingly step down. So far he has been steadfast in refusing to do so. I've heard some wishcasting that "well of course he's going to dig in his heels until the moment he doesn't" still thinking pressure on him will prevail. I don't believe it will. Politicians in general are very self centered and egotistical, and I've seen nothing to indicate Biden is an exception.
As you say, the next step in escalation is for Democrats to take him on at the convention. He's clearly thought ahead that far and is openly daring someone to try it. So far no one has thrown their hat in the ring, not even Dean Phillips. Biden is signaling that this option will be a real fight, it will be messy, and he will damage whoever comes for him as much as possible. He also starts with a big advantage given that almost all the delegates are pledged to him. The "good conscience" clause in their pledge is a loophole that could be exploited if enough people want to exploit it... but will they?
My expectation at this stage is that no one actually challenges, and Biden is coronated. Taking him on is a highly risky option - if you fail and Biden loses some people will blame you for the loss, potentially killing your future prospects. If you take him on and he wins that's even worse - now the President has a very personal grudge against you.
He's still not completely out of the woods if he gets through the convention - there's still the 25th Amendment option. But the convention is probably the biggest point of vulnerability left and if he survives that he probably survives to November.
He... kind of said that it would be OK with him if they did, in his 'big boy' press conference today. It was a little hard to parse, but he did use the words 'of course they can' -- so I guess he's sort of blessed an open convention? (unless of course he's senile and can't articulate his thoughts properly!)
Is it just me or does this "good conscience" clause talk really remind anyone else of the "regularly given" clause talk back in 2020? Of course, because the script writers for reality are so stinking good at their jobs, the partisan valence is somewhat switched.
It certainly could, in theory, result in the convention ending in a lawsuit by Biden trying to force delegates to vote for him.
More options
Context Copy link
More options
Context Copy link
More options
Context Copy link
More options
Context Copy link
More options
Context Copy link