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Notes -
What's Biden's survival path? Manifold's currently putting him at 41% chance, but I'm not seeing a likely way for that to happen.
Things look to me like:
Democrats express displeasure.
Biden refuses to drop out.
Democrats adjust convention rules to free up delegates.
Delegates reject Biden.
Are people thinking that Democrats won't allow the convention to nominate someone other than Biden? Or that delegates will vote for Biden?
Neither of those seem especially likely to me, especially when Kamala's an easy default option to unify around, even if her reputation is that she's unpopular. So I guess I'm not seeing where it's coming from. Are there convention rules that are problematic? I'm wondering whether them meeting early due to the Ohio deadline being earlier is a factor, but Ohio moved it back, so they can just cancel their early meeting, right?
But, this is not the best development for the Trump campaign.
I continue to think Biden is more likely than not to hold on (and probably lose).
The easiest and cleanest way for democrats to remove him is for him to willingly step down. So far he has been steadfast in refusing to do so. I've heard some wishcasting that "well of course he's going to dig in his heels until the moment he doesn't" still thinking pressure on him will prevail. I don't believe it will. Politicians in general are very self centered and egotistical, and I've seen nothing to indicate Biden is an exception.
As you say, the next step in escalation is for Democrats to take him on at the convention. He's clearly thought ahead that far and is openly daring someone to try it. So far no one has thrown their hat in the ring, not even Dean Phillips. Biden is signaling that this option will be a real fight, it will be messy, and he will damage whoever comes for him as much as possible. He also starts with a big advantage given that almost all the delegates are pledged to him. The "good conscience" clause in their pledge is a loophole that could be exploited if enough people want to exploit it... but will they?
My expectation at this stage is that no one actually challenges, and Biden is coronated. Taking him on is a highly risky option - if you fail and Biden loses some people will blame you for the loss, potentially killing your future prospects. If you take him on and he wins that's even worse - now the President has a very personal grudge against you.
He's still not completely out of the woods if he gets through the convention - there's still the 25th Amendment option. But the convention is probably the biggest point of vulnerability left and if he survives that he probably survives to November.
Maybe I'm misunderstanding the american system, but rebelling at the convention does not actually directly impact Biden's chances at the general election, right? At most indirectly since it makes the democrats look chaotic.
But the popular impression & even the mainstream media is sufficiently critical of Biden at this point that I think there is a good chance that if someone already sympathetic challenges Biden, and Biden wins the convention anyway, but then proceeds to lose the general election, that person will get a large boost in popularity and media pieces about "if only so-and-so had won the convention, everything would have been different". It might even be better for the person than winning the convention outright, since no potential democratic nominee has a >50% chance of beating trump. Better make a good impression now and then fight against someone else in the next election.
No direct impact, sure, but if some higher-ups in the party wanted a non-Biden scapegoat to punish then a convention challenger would be the obvious choice.
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