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Notes -
What are the specific jobs most likely to be eliminated by AI?
To my mind, this seems like the obvious answer, based on its currently demonstrated capabilities, that is creative types who follow orders- eg, graphic artists, ghost writers.
Secondly, I’d put call center workers. It can already carry on a conversation, stick to a script, and presumably loading a flow chart isn’t that hard.
Thirdly, there’s a few low level clerical tasks that seem like LLMs can probably take over, like data entry.
Beyond that, though, a lot of the projections for AI-driven job losses seem like they’re dependent on other technologies(eg, truck driver) or delusional about what LLMs can actually do(eg, lawyer).
So far bigger models have not fixed the serious flaws that all LLMs have: they have no common sense and make boneheaded errors. Importantly, they don't learn from these errors without more training. So when your production LLM is messing up, there's often no way to give it feedback.
Maybe the next model will solve this problem. The progress has been fast enough that I wouldn't doubt anything. But assuming this isn't fixed right away...
Not replaceable: Truck drivers, call center workers, data entry
Replaceable: Lawyers and paralegals
What are LLMs good at? Searching for information and creating boiler plate. Instead of lawyers reading hundreds of pages of legal documents, just load it into an LLM and then ask it questions. Want to create 10 pages of fancy legalese? Just write it in plain English and have the LLM make it sound like a lawyer wrote it.
LLMs are probably already capable of doing 90% of what lawyers do.
On the other side, there's a good chance lawyers will use this new efficiency to create longer and longer legal documents that require an LLM to parse.
Lawyers using LLMs has mostly not gone well for them thus far.
Are we sure about that? There's surely some good examples of mistakes, but what we don't see is the millions of legal documents that are already searched or created with LLMs.
What I am proposing is not a LLM-lawyer, but that an LLM can be a force amplifier for existing lawyers.
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