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Notes -
This report shows the top 10 states by illegal population in Table 3.
The only Southern border states are
AZ (360K, 5.1%).
FL (660K, 3.1%), if you count it as a border
TX (1940K, 6.6%)
Note that Arizona went blue. Against that we have
IL (450K, 3.5%)
NJ (460K, 5.2%)
NY (560K, 2.9%)
for unambiguously Northern blue states, and
WA (290K, 3.9%)
GA (380K, 2.7%)
CA (2610K!, 6.6%)
in the other-blue category. Percentages are proportions of total state populations per this 2018 estimate. The other state from the list is NC, which is neither blue nor border nor northern.
In conclusion, TX and CA dominate the conversation both in absolute numbers and in percentage. Of the northern states, NJ is closest in percentage, and NY in total population. FL has a higher total than any of them, but a lower percentage than IL or NJ.
On one hand, you could add up all the blue northern states, plus WA, and still not clear the number from TX. On the other, they are all dwarfed by CA. Take out those two big outliers, and I don't think AZ or FL really outpaces the north.
It's possible that this is skewed in some way, especially since it's pre-COVID, but it does agree with Texas' own numbers (p.27).
The fact that California is on the border and has such huge population of illegal immigrants tends to support the narrative that there's a border 'crisis.'
What I really want to see, but didn’t have time to assemble, is illegal population vs. winter temperature and vs. arable land.
I may try and write this up for this week’s thread, but my theory is that immigrants have enough mobility to get where the jobs are, and thus populations reflect that more than border proximity. If so, busing more to NYC is going to be ineffective as long as the jobs remain in TX and CA.
The question of a border crisis is a bit different. I’m open to the possibility that attempts are surging. On the other hand, I’m skeptical of claims that title 42 is the only real deportation. I’m still looking for title 8 numbers from ~10 years ago, which would let us estimate the actual influx.
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