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Notes -
Kamabla's poll numbers were surging. But the pollers have been MIA for a few days, even though tons of polls dropped every day up to last week. Meanwhile Rasmussen claims that other pollsters have changed their methodology in order to juice Kamabla's numbers. On one hand Rasmussen Reports is a partisan hack, but on the other hand they do a respectable job actually polling.
Is there any evidence of this happening? I remember seeing a post claiming that recent polls have polled proportionally more democrats rather than Republicans and Independents. And since party identification likely changes slower than voting preference, we could be seeing a big Simpson's paradox happening. But it would also be hard for pollsters to secretly juice these numbers without noticeably changing their methodology.
edit: Of course there's no doubt that Kamabla is performing much much better than Joe, but is it overstated as part of the campaign's big money blitz, or is it accurate?
I see it as the media working hard to present a vibes based campaign narrative. By all accounts, Kamala is a political lightweight and a horrible boss / manager. There just isn't anything substantive for her to run on that isn't "I'm going to continue the Biden platform" which is still a little touchy because it makes people think of Biden, which makes people think of spooky skeletons.
If they end up having more than one debate, it's going to get wild. But the October Surprise could be the White Whale / Black Beast of political campaigns - an actual recession. The term "soft landing" is being bandied about but that's the thing, the more you say "soft landing", the less likely it is to happen. If it was truly going to be a smooth glide down to the runway, it wouldn't need to be guaranteed and re-guaranteed again and again.
Trump is going to Play This Hits all the way until - and after - the election. What's old is new again. 2024 outrage over well trod 2016 Trump territory is just goofy at this point. Eventually, Kamala is going to have to convince White Men and The Women Who Love Them in PA, MI, WI, and MN to vote for her.
There is plenty of optimism driven momentum surrounding Harris coming from the anti-Trump forces, enough for her to coast along with minimal foot in mouth incidences. Trump by contrast seems intent on being the driver of the conversation, and while I agree with others on this board that much of the media fact-checking establishment is grasping at straws to inflate the severity of the stupid shit he says, it is also true that he says very little that is cogent or meaningful. He hasn't got a good insult on the level of Sleepy Joe or Crooked Hilary for Harris, and JD Vance comment on childless cat ladies is the only thing percolating in my media environment Harris is surprisingly teflon at the moment, and the Don hasn't found a soundbite to stick.
Sorry, this is what I meant by "Play The Hits." I agree with you.
An under reported fact about Trump is that he is, now, and incredibly known quantity. He's close to stale. All of his brash energy that sustained him in 2016 is now close to tedious. He's like a shock jock radio host who keeps making the same "that's what she said" zinger as he fades into obscurity.
In the Biden debate, we saw Biden fall apart on his own. There was a single opportunistic move by Trump; when Biden said "We finally beat Medicare" Trump responded along the lines "I don't know what he's talking about and I don't think he does either" (paraphrasing). If Trump had seized on Joe not being cogent in that Debate, he could've ended the Biden campaign the next day. Similarly, if, after the assassination, he had come out and stayed on a message of "I still want to drain the swamp - but now is a time for unity and peace" I think he puts himself up 10+ points and the Kamala switch really turns into a "lost with grace" campaign while the Democrats try to maybe win back the House or something.
The larger point is that Trump's often lauded political "instincts" haven't grown or improved in 8 years. He knows how to bully, he knows how to be funny, he knows how to work an in person crowd. Beyond that, he's acquire no new skills.
I have a post elsewhere that the race is already 93-95% decided. The campaigns are fighting over about 300,000 votes in six swing states (with the midwest being highly autocorrelated). As much as Trump has been fucking the dog recently, I still don't see Kamala winning one or several of MI/PA/WI if she doesn't go there and make her case. In fact, this is exactly what doomed Hillary Clinton in 2016.
Trump is a showman who won against a bureaucrat in 2016 and lost against a way-past-his-prime politician. Harris has inherited a political machine and hasn't said anything as stupid as 'deplorable' or 'pokemon go to the polls' which actively made Hilary look stupid. Trump only has Laughin Harris, which is so far inferior to Cacklin Kamala that his failure to deploy that just shows his current impotence. Harris definitely needs to give SOMETHING to the blue wall, but even there the enthusiasm for Trump has waned in general compared to 2016 and even 2020. Trump just doesn't have the sauce right now, and without Biden as a punching bag Trump just seems gassed out.
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