Transnational Thursday is a thread for people to discuss international news, foreign policy or international relations history. Feel free as well to drop in with coverage of countries you’re interested in, talk about ongoing dynamics like the wars in Israel or Ukraine, or even just whatever you’re reading.
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Notes -
What are the odds that Russia just straight up gives Iran nuclear weapons, Cuba style? Or have already done so?
In exchange for what?
It would allow Iran to actually fight Israel which would draw the United States further away from Europe. You see how Ukraine temporarily got put on the back burner after October 7. Additionally, having the Middle East controlled by a Russian ally would probably be good for Russia.
How would having nuclear weapons allow them to fight Israel?
They could potentially nuke Israel, and then be nuked back in return by Israel, and very likely other nations, including anyone who considers themselves allied with Israel, or simply against the unprovoked offensive use of nuclear weapons by anyone.
That aside, they can already fire conventional missiles at Israel. They don't have the ability to carry out an offensive land invasion of Israel, and having a few nukes isn't going to change that.
It would allow Iran a much freer hand. Part of the reason they haven’t retaliated for the assassination of the Hamas leader in Tehran is that Israel passed back-channel threats to retaliate with tactical nuclear strikes. You see how the US and UK are constantly breathing down Ukraine’s neck about what they can and cannot do in their war with Russia, specifically because the Allies are worried about a nuclear response. Iran is never going to be able to undertake any significant campaign against Israel unless the have nuclear weapons. Now obviously if Iran ever pushed Israel into a genuinely existential crisis, nuclear response would be on the table anyway, like for any two other nuclear powers.
That's not how anybody in the world has ever behaved with nuclear weapons.
How do you know Israel made "back-channel threats" about nuclear strikes? If they actually had, why wouldn't Iran immediately go running to Russia for protection? If they went public with evidence of such a thing, international support for Israel's war effort would likely evaporate, including from the US. Nuclear powers as a rule basically never do that because it could easily set off a chain of events exactly like that.
Historically, rival states which both have nuclear weapons become extremely cautious about provoking each other. See India and Pakistan. In every such case, both nations become terrified of doing anything that could conceivably escalate to a nuclear exchange. No set of nations has ever dared see mutual possession of nuclear weapons as an excuse to attack each other harder.
You know, except for Russia. And the United States. And India. And Pakistan. And China. And North Korea. And France.
Well three days after that is when the Russian military flights carrying unspecified cargo started flying into Iran, so maybe they did.
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