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Notes -
This weekend, I witnessed the Vibe Shift firsthand.
When we met for lunch, my mother’s first topic was the DNC. Who spoke and how great they sounded. How excited she was about the whole thing. She corrected me on “Comma-lah’s” name, which I’d apparently been mispronouncing, and used that as a springboard to discuss Kamala t-shirts. She didn’t mention that watching the DNC had been inspiring enough to get her volunteering to write postcards and stuff mailers. It was clear that she was all-in on the program without ever discussing policy—or even Donald Trump.
Dad chimed in a couple times to note that the overall messaging was much more positive, except for Bernie Sanders, who sounded unchanged from the last ten years. He appreciated this. I’d say he represents a section of the populace with immense distaste for Trump, but a comparable disdain for politicians who spend too much time talking about the man.
I had been under no illusions that Mom would vote anything but Democrat. Dad, not so sure; I’d have given good odds of a protest vote if the Libertarian candidate wasn’t such a non-entity. More likely that he abstained. But the last couple weeks appear to have left him much more comfortable voting D. The same has to be true for Mom, too, as I never saw this level of enthusiasm for anything Biden did or said.
That’s the Vibe Shift: apathy to enthusiasm.
It doesn’t take a coordinated blitz of friendly op-eds, since my parents were getting this straight from the TV. It doesn’t take an iron grip on that TV presentation; the DNC herds their cats, but they can’t convince Bill Clinton to get off stage. And it doesn’t even take a winning policy slate. The Democrat base, the casual never-Trumpers, maybe even the grillpillers? They’re just glad to have a candidate under the retirement age.
This one is Kamala's to lose.
The biggest sign was how quickly the Trump assassination story died down. The second Biden stepped down, he overwhelmed the media cycle and wiped the slate clean on both sides. Ofc, getting the support of everyone other than the crazies really helps. Every institution (left and right) is aligned on putting her in power. Look at Trump's new twitter, it has fully morphed into the caricature that Hillary claimed it was in 2016. (https://x.com/realDonaldTrump).
Kamala has picked a golden retriever of a VP candidate and has managed to be in public life for decades without expressing a substantial opinion. This is useful. It allows a vibes based campaign to flourish. If you have said nothing, they can't attack you. One big scandal from Kamala or Tim can potentially turn the tides, but so far she's been doing well.
Trump camp seems clueless too. Kamala is happy to fight in the dirt with Trump, because she too can have a full debate without saying anything substantial. So much energy was expended painting Hillary, Biden and Obama as evil, that Trump doesn't have much novel angles of attack. On top of that, JD Vance is clearly a terrible VP candidate (as much as us Rationalist types might agree with him). Kamala has avoided the obvious landmines too. She has steered clear of supporting Palestine and immediately stopped talking about the new capital-gains-tax before it could turn scandalous. She was a harsh prosecutor, so the crime angle doesn't work. Kamala has lucked into a pretty defensible position, because she is an uninspiring candidate for democratic primaries. But, her track record is pretty centrist for the generals.
All that being said, the electoral college is surely going to make this one a lot closer than it actually is. (ofc a lot can change between now and nov)
I find it hard to give Kamala much credit here beyond being able to thread the needle between acting like a harmless ingenue and projecting enough professional demeanor that there is no actual feeling of wrongness when imagining her as a president. Rather, I'm left impressed with the perfectly choreographed campaign that started with a big and somewhat crass push to caricature Trump and Vance as creepy (that TV ad someone here linked a while back). This was followed by an almost complete denial of media air to Trump, except to prominently describe them as "weird" and thereby subtly keep the memory of the initial blitz alive.
The media discipline in following this script was basically flawless and extended even to cultural vassals like DE, and seems to have been calibrated to tickle the same social receptors that enable people to rapidly catch on when a member of their peer group fucked up one time too many and there is an unspoken consensus to quietly cut them off. It must have taken a great amount of internal whipping to stop any and all outlets from defecting and farming TDS engagement by reporting on his shenanigans, but short of dying, killing someone, withdrawing or going to jail, he will probably not get rent-free headlines again.
What surprises me is how little self-respect the corporate media seem to have. The Harris campaign treats reporters with complete disdain. Harris refuses to answer even the most basic questions, let alone explain any substantive policy proposals. The DNC handed out hundreds of press credentials/passes not to actual reporters but to TikTok influencers. The DNC gave clueless celebrities the choicest access to insiders in a display reminiscent of a foreigner’s pre-planned trip to Beijing or Pyongyang. Reporters fawned over the cult of personality of an empty vessel for President. Do they have no shame? Do Comcast and Time Warner shareholders really care so little about journalism in favor of maximizing profit?
Glenn Greenwald, an actual journalist, covered these sentiments very well. I would refer you to his opinion pieces.
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