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Nowhere did I say Ukraine is one the edge of collapse, I actually said the opposite in the next section. I think we're past the point where we can reasonably expect a Ukrainian collapse and Russian surge into Kiev, (almost) regardless of levels of Western aid flowing into Ukraine.
But I also don't see a realistic scenario in which Ukrainian forces retake any significant amount of territory from the Russians, absent a complete Russian collapse. Which doesn't seem likely.
Neither side can win a victory, at this point, that will justify the costs paid.
Sure there is. Survival of the Ukrainian nation, not only in this war but in the prospects of the next.
The invasion of 2022 was the third continuation war in a decade launched by Russia against Ukraine, and done on the basis including the belief that there was no Ukrainian nation and that the Ukrainians should be disabused of this by conquest, systemic killings, and re-russification of the rest. This was, has been, and remains, in a very real sense, an existential struggle of which the current moment of Russian inability to deliver upon its intent was not guaranteed and cannot be guaranteed in the future absent further changes to the Russian belief and capabilities. That includes not only the belief and capability of Russia's ability to prevail in this war, but the potential to prevail in a fourth continuation war- a prospect that the Russians have already signalled an intent to prepare for via their demands in the 2022 ceasefire talks, when Russian demands included levels of Ukrainian disarmament that would have left Ukraine with fewer tanks than they've since lost in this war.
You say that we're past the point that we can reasonably expect a Ukrainian collapse regardless of levels of Western aid flowing into Ukraine, and many others will frankly disagree. You may disagree with that, but that justification remains, and in any utilitarian 'worth the costs' comparison existential risk is the categorical trump card.
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