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Notes -
More prediction markets stuff.
On /r/slatestarcodex there's actually a decent discussion of the prediction markets weirdness we've been seeing. It does turn out that there was probably a whale who bought enough Trump shares to increase the price from 50 to 60 over a number of days.
But, far from being an attempt at manipulation, this is actually a savvy trader who saw that the new Trump poll numbers had not yet been reflected in the election odds and took advantage of that. In the days since, Trump's Polymarket odds have crystalized at around 60% as traders have digested the new consensus. But if this was manipulation, it would require a constant influx of new capital to maintain the price of 60.
So what would manipulation look like?
Well, we actually saw it last night, when the price of Trump shares had a flash crash to 55 before quickly recovering to 60. This movement has all the hallmarks of manipulation.
It took place during the wee hours of Sunday morning, the lowest liquidity time of the week
The price immediately rebounded back to 60 as traders took advantage of the mispricing
Odds for individual states did NOT shift in concert with Harris's national odds
My guess is that someone in the vein of Reid Hoffman bought the manipulation story enough to try a counter-manipulation of their own, rapidly lost a few hundred thousand dollars and then bailed.
Takeaway: Polymarket is more robust than many people gave it credit for.
Here's a genuine thought I had about a tactic that is probably illegal but might not have been tried yet:
What is somebody 'gifted' $100 worth of Trump "yes" shares to friends and family who might be on the fence (and residing in swing states), with absolutely ZERO strings attached... but the shares do not vest/aren't directly accessible until after the election (so they can't just sell them and turn right around and buy Harris). You give them no instructions, make no requests, and in fact refuse to state who you support/are voting for if pressed. So while the implication of what you're doing is clear, and they can probably figure out the incentives, you have made no statements which would implicate intentions to buy votes to bring about a particular political outcome.
The chances of getting arrested for trying this must be near 100%. And the strat is easily countered if some other party distributes an equivalent value of Harris shares. But I am genuinely curious if there is some way to structure things to make it financially profitable for an otherwise 'undecided' swing state voter to acquire shares for each candidate and trade them using solely the knowledge that their own vote will have some real chance of impacting the outcome.
Also:
Is it theoretically possible for a prediction market to generate a real life preference cascade in favor of a given candidate? It seems like it could happen as people realize the money is beginning to heavily favor one over the other, and they, too, can turn a profit if they buy in and vote for the apparently-dominant candidate.
If anyone's trying market manipulation, that would be a possible goal... but I don't think prediction markets are relevant enough to have that kind of impact... yet.
Can't wait until the 2026 elections when candidates will have financial analysts on staff to interpret market swings and respond instantly to shifts in their own chances of victory. Pleasing the market will suddenly become more important that merely polling well.
Also can't wait until the first time a candidate gets assassinated solely because someone has a HUGE bet riding on them losing an election.
I will say that a Trump win sitting at 60-66% chances FEELS right to me.
I keep saying that Kamala can't maintain popularity without the media pulling all the weight for her. She is, personally, very unimpressive and can come across as straight up insincere at best, and utterly out of her depth at worst. Bad product, good marketing. But the marketing is starting to crack, indeed some journos seem to be breaking ranks a bit (not in the tank for Trump, mind). The more she does off-script appearances the worse impression she gives off.
I genuinely think she might have had a better chance doing Biden's 2020 strat of hiding in basement most of the time.
So in short, she's got the die-hard Dem base + the anti-Trump brigade on lock, but I think she utterly lacks cross-demographic appeal AND has been boxed in by the dueling demands of demographics they DO have support from, such that any attempts to outreach sincerely to outgroups will be interpreted as defection.
I also expect the markets to narrow in a bit as we come closer to the election and people decide to close out their positions at a marginal profit rather than actually take the dice roll. If somebody bought a bunch of Trump shares at ~45-50% and can sell them for 55-60% that's a decent profit for a short period trade.
If anybody rolls into election night holding substantial Trump Win shares they bought back in late July or even August, I will commend them for having tremendous balls and/or diamond hands.
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