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Transnational Thursday for December 5, 2024

Transnational Thursday is a thread for people to discuss international news, foreign policy or international relations history. Feel free as well to drop in with coverage of countries you’re interested in, talk about ongoing dynamics like the wars in Israel or Ukraine, or even just whatever you’re reading.

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Pretty quiet week for me, but then again I'm focused on events that could escalate. The South Korea martial law declaration was poorly executed (compare with the 1981 Spanish coup), and overall I thought it wasn't a big deal. Maybe I'm just desensitized. As the Lebanon front closes a new front emerged in Syria, which seems like a bigger deal (because it's a bigger country), but nothing decisive has happened there yet.

Russia moved some assets outside Syria, perhaps suggesting that it will not reinforce Assad.

United Healthcare CEO assassinated

Meta plans to build $10B spanning undersea internet cable for its exclusive use.

Hezbollah fires the first missiles since ceasefire

Estonia launches large-scale NATO exercises near border with Russia, together with France, the United Kingdom, the United States and Latvia. I like Estonia and consider them competent.

Catholic bishop attacked and robbed in Sudan, by the RSF. Meanwhile the pope calls for peace

Marburg virus has been spreading a bit. I previously was vaguely paying attention to it, but now it's come up often enough that I'm more actively tracking it.

UK orders 5M doses of H5 vaccine

China state news point out how the US has repeatedly promised and failed to provide security to Africa.

Pakistan army kills some jihadist insurgents

The South Korea military law declaration seems like a nothingburger.

Syrian conflict continues.

Flu-like disease kills 143 in Congo.

French prime minister resigns. Unclear if Macron (President) will hang on to power.

Meanwhile, Senegal and Chad asked France troops to leave. France presence in Africa has declined a lot over the last few years.

China banned exports of various raw materials to the US.

Interesting comment about the undersea cable. It's no Starlink, but that level of infrastructure in the hands of a private company is somewhat unprecedented.

The Chinese export ban seems like the most important item here. They are dominating manufacturing and control much of the raw resources, so this is a direct and preemptive attack on Trump's promise to raise tariffs on Chinese goods.