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ZorbaTHut  1yr ago (text post)   31261 thread views

Culture War Roundup for the week of October 17, 2022

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Does it make DeSantis look silly and buffoonish to his supporters, his detractors, the likely voters among them, the unlikely voters among them, the swing vote? Remember, every audience is seeing their own movie. It literally does not matter at all if a million people think this makes DeSantis look bad if they're not gonna vote for him anyway -- and it'd be worth earning all of their disapproval just to make 15,000 people on his side more likely to.. well, support him.

"But he might have alienated more independents than he did excite members of the base", you could argue. And maybe! The political calculations are certainly complex.. in theory.

In practice, though, I think everyone's collectively agreed that exciting the base beats infuriating the enemy, and these complex calculations aren't actually being worked out.

Agreed that base excitement outweighs infuriating the enemy and also that it trumps winning over hypothetical swing voters. And I also agree that all these factors are pretty amorphous and not easily measurable, or measurable at all.

It's all a matter of opportunity cost: was this the most effective use of DeSantis' time, effort, and attention in terms of getting earned media, particularly among conservative media outlets? Given foreknowledge of how it would play out, would he have made the same choices? If it was and he would have, I guess it was reasonable, but even that speaks to his skills as a politician.

It is really hard for someone to look at their outgroup do something controversial and say "oh yes, that was a good idea he just did."

(I do not trust the ingroup much on this, either.)

Like all politicians, DeSantis does lots of things, some of them work and some of them do not.

Election security is very important. But if people ask if they can vote and get told they can vote, arresting them seems to not help much. This is not getting us Voter ID. It just looks like the bureaucracy telling people one day they are doing things okay and the next "lol get fukt."

How the hell does a government bureaucracy run on not just the spoken word of a bureaucrat, but a convicted felons spoken memory of the spoken word of a bureaucrat?

Merely speaking a lie should be insufficient to cast an illegal ballot like its insufficient in every single other advanced country. Canada, the UK, France, you have to show ID and prove with physical documents your eligibility to vote. Address changed? Show the paperwork. Citizenship status changed? Show the paperwork. Name Changed? Show the paperwork.

Only in America is the fate of the nation riding on the honor system. And only in America would it be considered a scandal that you'd hold someone accountable for being demonstrably wrong in such a system.

"But he claims some rando he can't remember told him he could do it" We should totally remove the very last post facto enforcement mechanism we have that even pretends this is secure, because now that we've narrowed it down to just personal honor we find we're uncomfortable punishing people for being wrong on matters of honor.

Canada, the UK, France, you have to show ID and prove with physical documents your eligibility to vote

I mean, I already said I wanted Voter ID.

So. Yeah.

If someone has their address change and they file the change-of-address form and they get mailed a new voter registration card at their new address, the bureaucracy better not come back after they vote and say "oh wait we double-checked our records and the form showed up 3 days late we never should have sent you that now we fuck you in the ass."

How the hell does a government bureaucracy run on not just the spoken word of a bureaucrat, but a convicted felons spoken memory of the spoken word of a bureaucrat?

You are making things up. Nothing about this case relied on the honor system. These people registered, local elected officials asked the state government to verify they were eligible, the state said they were, and the local officials granted the registration.

At least some of them had it in writing:

Terry Hubbard, who was convicted in 1989 of sexual battery of a victim under 12 years old, told law enforcement that he registered to vote at the Broward County Property Appraiser's Office. Afterward, he was sent "a ballot and a letter in the mail stating he was eligible to vote," according to court documents. The 64-year-old then returned the mail ballot.

Maybe he's hoping that people will look at this and go 'boy wouldn't it be great if instead of this banana republic bullshit where you can get arrested for doing what a government official told you to do we had a system in place that determines all this shit before the election and sends me something I can use to say "yes this is me and yes I can vote" like we do with plane tickets and driving and buying cough medicine?'

Yeah I agree, that would've been great! You do realize that the text of Amendment 4 simply said "This amendment would restore voting rights automatically upon completion of all terms of a sentence, including parole or probation", right? It was the Republican legislature that worked very hard to enshrine into law that "all terms of a sentence" actually also includes any potentially unpaid fines. They did this despite (or more accurately and less charitably because) everyone involved was loudly raising the alarm that there was no viable system in place for the state to keep track of unpaid fines.

Here's just one excerpt of the mess from the lawsuit that followed:

An example is a flat $225 assessment in every felony case, $200 of which is used to fund the clerk’s office and $25 of which is remitted to the Florida Department of Revenue for deposit in the state’s general revenue fund. Another example is a flat $3 assessment in every case that is remitted to the Department of Revenue for further distribution in specified percentages for, among other things, a domestic-violence program and a law-enforcement training fund.

And here's one guy's efforts to pay all his fines:

Mr. Wrench was convicted of felonies under two case numbers on December 15, 2008. The State introduced copies of the judgments, but it is unclear whether the copies are complete. The criminal judgments, or at least the portion in the record, do not show any financial obligations. But on February 2, 2009, a civil judgment was entered under the first case number for $1,874 in “financial obligations”—no further description was provided—that, according to the civil judgment, had been ordered as part of the sentence. Similarly, on March 15, 2011, more than two years later, a civil judgment was entered under the second case number for $601 in unspecified “financial obligations” that, again according to the civil judgment, had been ordered as part of the sentence. It is unclear what amount, if any, the State asserts Mr. Wrench must pay on these convictions to be eligible to vote.

None of this had to be this way. Voting restoration that only needed to look at when a prison or probation sentence ended would've been infinitely easier to implement that the system Florida chose instead, where the existence of an unnoticed $3 unpaid fine in some court clerk's drawer decides whether someone's vote is legal or a felony offense.

Yeah sorry I was typical minding, what I'm saying is that maybe the plan is to make it all seem crazy convoluted and impossible to follow so people throw up their hands and say 'just give us voting id already' in exasperation. I get the impression the republicans see voter id as the way to convince their base they've solved election fraud.

I'm so confused as to how voter id would help. This was not a scenario of mistaken identity here but rather the government choosing to implement a system everyone knew was going to be a record-keeping mess.

It would not help this problem but voters often move just on a pathos of "oh yeah we should clean things up."

How would voter ID help? Couldn't there be a case where someone has a voter ID but their vote was still cast illegally because of <insert reason>? If government erroneously lets people vote verbally (like in real life), wouldn't they also erroneously let people vote with an ID?

The only possible reason I can think of is with voter ID, if a voter could prove they had the ID. Would a voter really be able to prove they had an ID? Why can't voters (in real life) prove they were told they could vote?

Voter ID to me, solves the problem of voters deceiving government. This case is about government deceiving voters.

Lol, still typical minding sorry. I am trying to explain why I think the republicans are doing this. Keep in mind that I am pretty sure both major parties cheat their asses off in every election they can and have done for decades. So why would desantis, who seems competent enough to avoid making a whoopsie daisy like this by accident, be doing it deliberately? What is the purpose of it?

My theory is that he's accelerating. Knowing people don't care about details, only headlines, he does everything he can to introduce confusion to the voting process - the specifics of what he does not mattering as much as increasing the number of stories about electoral fuck ups out there - so that after the twentieth story of 'election mishaps' the headline-reading moderate, who is now utterly sick of hearing about election shit, will agree to let the government do something about the election to 'fix it'.

Then the republicans institute voter ids and declare the problem solved and elections safe forever.

Edit: @ymeskhout also.

It was the Republican legislature that worked very hard to enshrine into law that "all terms of a sentence" actually also includes any potentially unpaid fines.

I guess I would have assumed that "all terms of a sentence" is implicitly inclusive of unpaid fines from that sentence. I'm not clear why fines would be excluded from either textualist or spirit of the law readings. I appreciate the practical problems that you're covering, and that certainly speaks poorly of the process, but it would seem quite weird to me if "all terms of the sentence" actually meant "the terms of incarceration, but not fines and fees".

I think everyone would agree that "sentence" would include time spent behind bars. If you were to widen the scope of the definition, the concept you'd encounter next would be probation, where you're still under supervision even though you no longer in a prison. If you were to widen the scope even more, you could reach the concept of fines if the definition is expansive enough. But generally the progression here logically goes from most central to the concept, down to most collateral.

So when the amendment says "all terms of a sentence, including parole or probation" it's there to disavow any potential confusion of the scope anyone might have vis-a-vis "prison" and "parole or probation". The fact that they specify parole or probation further anchors the demarcation line. To argue that fines are implicitly included in this expansion, you'd have to establish that fines are logically just as central to the concept of a sentence as parole/probation are within the context of a criminal prosecution. A common analysis technique in statutory interpretation used by courts is where the trailing examples are used as guiding illustrations to set the scope. For example if I ran a restaurant and had a generic contract with a supplier for "dairy, like milk and cheese" and they deliver tubs of whey protein powder, a judge is very likely to rule that violated the contract, even if it was technically correct.

The amendment text could have said "all terms of a sentence, including parole, probation, or fines" in which case there would not have been any ambiguity. It didn't, and the best most charitable interpretation its omission can sustain is that reasonable minds can disagree. But if this was really an edge case of interpretation, it doesn't explain the insistence to choose an implementation everyone knew was going to come with severe practical problems, which is why they're relevant.

Parole and probation are, well, probationary measures; they're a supervised relaxing of a punishment conditional on good behavior, rather than a punishment themselves. If you're out on parole it means you should be in prison but we're trusting you. They don't intuitively map to me as part of the sentence.

A fine, however, is. You get sentenced to a five thousand dollar fine and five year in prison, and during that sentence you might be let out on parole.

A fine is much more centrally a part of a sentence than probation is.

I think there's some merit to what you're saying... but would you agree that there's a difference between the fines given in sentencing and the fines that are tacked on for processing?

I'd probably be fine with saying these people needed to pay the fines referenced by the judge. But if someone is sentenced to jailtime, and then a bunch of fines are tacked on as part of the processing for the court and the jail... those don't seem like they shkuld be part of the sentence.

If those “tacked on” fines aren’t part of the sentence, by what authority are they being imposed? If you are legally obligated to pay a sum of money as a result of a criminal conviction, it seems to me you have been “sentenced” to pay that sum of money.

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