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Culture War Roundup for the week of October 17, 2022

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There's another, and much bigger problem, though. If you district by naive algorithm like this, Republicans win the districting process an overwhelming majority of the time.

If compact districts favoured Republicans as much as you think they do, then Republican legislatures would draw maps with compact districts. The fact that Republicans are drawing salamander-shaped districts suggests that the bias inherent in compact districts (which is real) isn't enough to satisfy them.

Incidentally, if you measure bias as "who gets more seats when the popular vote is a 50-50 split" then the largest natural bias is the one if favour of the party whose safe seats have lower turnout.

If compact districts favoured Republicans as much as you think they do, then Republican legislatures would draw maps with compact districts. The fact that Republicans are drawing salamander-shaped districts suggests that the bias inherent in compact districts (which is real) isn't enough to satisfy them.

...or that there are other considerations in play, such as that it's been illegal for them to do so for some time, in large part because of the Voting Rights Act of 1965, which mandated racial demographic consideration (a requirement for gerrymander) and federal approval of changes (an obstacle to breaking it). Federal preclearance was only voided for a number of Republican-controlled states in 2013. There has literally only been 1 census cycle, and one congressional district reorientation, since then.

At which point you not only have the specter of (already ongoing) lawfare, but the secondary implications of working from the inertia of already-existing political subdivisions, like state counties, which themselves are often the anchoring points of congressional districts, and the political power structures that exist within and amongst these that interacts with what the legislatures can do. Even if an entire legislature was held by the Republicans, just the nature of the patronage network disruption and individual self-interests would make it a fratricide-heavy environment to pick the winners and choosers.