Let's chat about the National Football League. This thread will be dedicated to all post-season games, including the Super Bowl. This post will be updated with results and schedules going into February (All times Eastern):
Wildcard matchups:
2025-01-11:
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04:30PM: Los Angeles Chargers vs. Houston Texans
08:00PM: Pittsburgh Steelers vs. Baltimore Ravens
2025-01-12:
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01:00PM: Denver Broncos vs. Buffalo Bills,
04:30PM: Green Bay Packers vs. Philadelphia Eagles
08:00PM: Washington Commanders vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers
2025-01-13
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08:00PM: Minnesota Vikings vs. Los Angeles Rams
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Notes -
Motte NFL Playoff Preview
Sports fans IT IS TIME. The last few weeks of the season are often doldrums, the Eagles didn’t have much to play for since losing the second Redskins matchup. But now it is revving up. This weekend will see six matchups, and for the most part I’m pretty happy with the field. Few teams I hate made it, and within the teams I do hate (Redskins, Bucs) I actually kind of begrudgingly like some of their players. So I’ll start things off this week with a guide to every matchup for the weekend and a quick blurb on each team to help start arguments among the regulars, and to give a reference for anyone just tuning in to go to watch parties.
Number One Seeds: Off this week, the best teams in the league.
Kansas City Chiefs: A study in media and public exhaustion, the 2024 Chiefs just won. Over and over. Despite an offense that was stripped of all playmaking talent beyond Patty Mahomes and an aging Travis Kelce, they just win. Well coached, experienced, disciplined. A stifling defense makes up for offensive deficiencies. They’re not getting a lot of press compared to other, more exciting contenders, but no one is going to be surprised to see them in the Super Bowl. I’ll always be a fan of Andy Reid, who I grew up on in Philly, and it’s tough to dislike the Chiefs the way I used to dislike the Brady-Belichek Patriots, but they’re probably my last choice of team to win.
Detroit Lions: The best Detroit Lions team, by far, of my entire life. A high-octane offense behind two (healthy for the playoffs!) running backs in Gibbs and Montgomery, with a high end game manager in Jared Goff passing to excellent pass catchers, and an OC in Ben Johnson who always has a trick up his sleeve. Don’t be surprised to see them give the ball to a big ol’ offensive tackle for a touchdown, or a triple flea flicker for an 80 yard gain. Their defense has been devastated by injuries, but "you can't bury what comes from the dirt" and they're biting kneecaps behind clear COTY Dan Campbell, playing hard physical disciplined football. If my Eagles don’t win, I’ll be rooting for the Lions. I want Detroit to get this one.
Wildcard Games:
Los Angeles Chargers (-150) at Houston Texans: One of the two away favorites, the LA Fighting’ Justin Herberts are hoping to overcome decades of Chargering to win a game they should win. The Texans had big expectations coming into the year, behind standout sophomore QB CJ Stroud. Injuries and underperformance hit the team pretty hard, and though they won a weak division to get a home playoff berth, I don’t have a lot of faith in them here. The Chargers meanwhile have looked well coached behind Harbaugh (who claims he can remember his own birth), and combine a tough defense with a workable offense lead by the hyper-talented Herbert. MOTTE ROOTING INTEREST: @Hoffmeister25 is a Chargers fan, so root for LA.
Pittsburgh Steelers at Baltimore Ravens (-550): The Steelers spent much of the year looking like a tough, well disciplined team with coach Mike Tomline able to squeeze wins out of the rind of Russell Wilson and TJ Watt’s game-breaking ability on defense. After their devastating loss to the Eagles, they’ve looked weak, and fumbled the division to the rival Ravens, who they’ll face in the playoffs. The Ravens have also been fairly disappointing this season, with all-universe MVP talent Lamar Jackson and big boy Derrick Henry leading an offense that should be unstoppable, and an always tough defense. But they fumbled shoulda-been wins to the Browns and Eagles. The Ravens are clear logical favorites, I just don’t have faith in the Steelers offensive talent, but Tomlin doesn’t let any game get away from him easy, and boy would it be fun to see the Discourse about the Ravens after a loss. MOTTE ROOTING INTEREST: We have a ton of Pittsburgh boys here, so let’s all root for Pennsylvania’s second best team to get the devastating upset.
Denver Broncos at Buffalo Bills (-550): The Bills are thinking THIS IS OUR YEAR. The Bills have been great since Josh Allen came into his own, but have fallen short on the biggest stages. Following last year’s overtime loss to the Eagles, a Bills fan on the train told me “Just once, I’d like us to win the Game of the Year instead of losing it.” A deeply lovable team, they play exciting football, they have a ton of cute players like rookie WR Coleman who has fantastic interviews and DB Hamlin who literally died and came back to life. The Broncos, meanwhile, are mostly just happy to be here. Head Coach Sean Payton has turned the team around impressively after jettisoning Russell Wilson and drafting rookie QB Bo Nix. The Broncos have impressed by making it this far, and Bo Nix is going to be good, but the dead cap hit from Wilson hamstrung talent levels on this team. Look out for the Broncos in a year or two, but this year, Buffalo is gonna boot them out in the first round. MOTTE ROOTING INTEREST: @Walterodim is a Bills fan, root for Josh Allen to rout the Broncos on his way to a rivalry game next week against another great QB.
Green Bay Packers at Philadelphia Eagles (-240): The main event of the day for me. I’m attending this game, the first playoff game I’ve been to at the Linc since I was in middle school. Look for me in the end zone with a cardboard sign talking about probabilities and Berkson’s paradox. Comparing the squads, the Eagles have the advantage in talent at every position except QB and maybe edge rusher. The Eagles offensive attack relies on simply having so many threats that it is impossible to handle them all. You have to rush extra men to beat the best offensive line in the league, but you also have to watch out for local-boy-made-good Saquon Barkley on an all time rushing season, and you have to keep a QB spy to keep Jalen Hurts from taking off, and you have to double team AJ Brown or he’s #AlwaysOpen, and if you double team AJ you risk leaving DeVonta Smith and Dallas Goedert open. There just aren’t enough defenders to do it all, if the scheme works and they can play how they want. Plus, the Eagles have their special ability, the Brotherly Shove, think of it as like Tim, trade one down for one yard, which makes a huge difference in every game. The Packers are one of those teams that always has talent, they’ve managed their QB transition better than any team, with Jordan Love seamlessly taking over for Aaron Rodgers. In general a mediocre team by playoff standards, and weaker than the Eagles in talent and playmakers, but they are well coached and Love is poised beyond his years. If the Eagles lose this one, it is because LaFleur out-coached Nick, and Love outplayed Hurts. MOTTE ROOTING INTEREST: If you enjoyed any of my posts, root for the Eagles.ETA: If you like @SubstantialFrivolity better, root for the Packers
Washington Redskins at Tampa Bay Buccaneers (-175): A clash of two surprise teams, the Redskins have over performed with surefire OROY Jayden Daniels leading the best Washington team in years. Washington is thin all over, but they’re scrappy and they’re excited to be here. The Bucs, meanwhile, were supposed to be in their post-Brady wilderness years right now, but Charlie Day Look Alike Baker Mayfield’s renaissance and Todd Bowles defensive coaching has won this team the division. Neither team is expected to make a deep playoff run, and whoever wins this one will likely lose in the next round. I personally despise both these franchises, though not their current incarnations or players. MOTTE ROOTING INTEREST: I don’t think we have anyone for this one, so I’m going to personally plead, root for Washington, if my Eagles make the next round I’d be terrified to watch them face the Bucs.
Minnesota Vikings (-130) at Los Angeles Rams: The Vikings are probably the second best team in the NFC, but rules are rules and they have to play away to the still-hanging-on Rams. The Vikings have way over performed expectations, especially after losing their planned starting QB in the pre-season, but GEQBUS Sam Darnold has had a tremendous year and should win CBPOY. The talent on offense, especially the pass catchers, is tremendous. Brian Flores has the best coached defense in the league, getting a ton out of his players and throwing confusing looks at offenses to get sacks and turnovers. The only concern for the Vikes going into this game is losing spirit after dropping the biggest regular season game of the year against Detroit last week. The Rams have been milking the last years of Matthew Stafford, getting a few playoff seasons out of what was figured to be the denouement of their Super Bowl win. WR Puka Nakua and Cooper Kupp provide offensive firepower, while DROY Jared Verse is in the backfield every play. They lack the juice to be expected to win a playoff game or make much of a run, but they have the ability to make any team sweat going against them, and beat Buffalo in a thriller earlier. MOTTE ROOTING INTEREST: I don’t think we have one for this game.
What a regular season! It was the best of times, it was the worst of times. Well, that's not entirely true - as a Jets fan it was pretty much all the worst of times after boat racing the Pats in week 3 (though at least my fantasy teams did well?). But now we're onto the teams that aren't abominable dumpster fires, at least most of the time. Spreads are taken from my (just for fun) Yahoo pick'em league - I don't gamble but it gives a good indication of what people are thinking for the matchups. (for those who don't know, spreads are effectively the margin by which teams are expected to win. If a spread is -7 for example, a team has to win by more than 7 points to win the bet. Negative numbers mean the team has to win by more than that amount, while a positive number means a team has to either win or lose by less than that amount. If the team wins by exactly the amount, its a push and the bet is returned.) Many thanks for the format!
Kansas City Chiefs: They Can't Keep Getting Away With It, and yet somehow they do. After completely laying down against the Broncos (even compared to other teams that rested their starters), the Chiefs have shown that they are not only the best at winning; they're also the best at tanking (RIP to the Bengals' playoff hopes, and may their defense be executed for crimes against humanity). Seriously, all the teams that blew their chances at the #1 overall pick should take some notes (Giants/Raiders/Pats, I'm talking to you). Similar to the Steelers of a few years ago being "the worst 10-1 team of all time", the Chiefs' performance this season has to put them as one of if not the worst 15-1 team of all time (excluding the last game). Time and time again they snatched victory from the jaws of defeat (as opposed to my Jets, who remained the experts at snatching defeat from the jaws of victory during the most depressing season of my fandom). Between their overwhelming dominance of the league by the slimmest of margins the past couple years (and the Travis Kelce-Taylor Swift relationship that still sticks in the craw of many for some reason), most fans of the NFL are sick of the Chiefs - but they just keep winning, and are my favorites for the Super Bowl until someone finally manages to slay the dragon (and even then, they better make sure it's dead - I'm not counting them out until the clock hits zeroes).
Detroit Lions: After a dominating second half against their surprising contender, the Lions finally managed to secure the top spot in their best season since the merger (at least). No one needed the first-round bye more than the heavily injured Lions, who hope to have star running back David Montgomery back for the playoffs. If you found it hard to notice his absence, blame other star running back Jahmyr Gibbs, who showed himself more than capable of handling the load in Montgomery's absence. The Lions are stacked throughout the offensive roster, with top pass catchers, a kick-ass offensive line, and the best running back room in the league by a wide margin, led by the resurgent Jared Goff. Their defense has been absolutely crushed by injuries, but looked strong against the potent Vikings offense last week. If not for the Chiefs' devil magic, the Lions would be my favorites for the Super Bowl.
Wildcard Games:
Los Angeles Chargers (-3) @ Houston Texans (Sat, 4:30 ET): The Houston Texans and hosting the early Saturday wild card timeslot: name a more iconic duo, I'll wait. Seriously, the Texans have played in this time slot literally every time they've made the playoffs. In what was expected by many to be a rebuilding year in their first year with new coach Jim Harbaugh, the Chargers have exceeded expectations to get this far in a tough division featuring two other playoff teams. They face off against the Texans, who despite winning what remains the worst division in the league did not look particularly convincing doing it. Last year's rookie phenom CJ Stroud took a step backwards this year despite the addition of talented WR Stefon Diggs, even before Diggs tore his ACL halfway through the year. As a whole, after exceeding expectations with both a rookie head coach and QB last year the entire team seems to have hit a sophomore slump. They are still the more talented team, but Harbaugh is a damn good coach who's been here before, and the Chargers have played above their level all season while the Texans haven't looked good in over a month. I would take the Chargers to win, and even with the point spread the Chargers would still be my choice.
Pittsburgh Steelers (+10) @ Baltimore Ravens (Sat, 8:00 ET): In their third matchup of the year, these two will face off in Baltimore once again, where the Ravens handled the Steelers just three weeks ago. These two teams seem to be heading in opposite directions, with the Ravens defense finding itself after a rough first half and the Steelers offense collapsing after a strong start with Russ. In fact, the Steelers enter the postseason on a four-game losing streak after a brutal schedule to end the season, facing the Eagles, Ravens, Chiefs and Bengals in succession. Lamar and the Ravens have not been able to elevate their play in the postseason, and Ravens-Steelers games have tended to be close slugfests throughout their history. This year however, the Steelers seem to be just about out of gas, while the Ravens are hitting their stride. I expect the Ravens to come out on top, while the Yinzers continue to question their team's inability to make the divisional round (if they'd like to move on from Tomlin as they seem to argue for every year, I'd take him on the Jets in a heartbeat). Against the spread, 10 points is a lot, particularly for a divisional playoff game; while I expect the Ravens to win, I would probably lean towards grabbing the points.
Denver Broncos (+9) @ Buffalo Bills (Sun, 1:00 ET): The Broncos demolished the preseason-level Chiefs last week to squeeze out the last playoff spot. Their reward is to face the Buffalo Bills and likely MVP Josh Allen (I would give it to him, personally). The Bills have had some of the most impressive wins of the season this year, handing the Chiefs their only full-blooded loss and beating the other #1 seed Lions in a thriller. However, they have a clear Achille's heel, and in their case it's less a heel than it is an Achille's left arm: the Bills' defense has been unable to stop anyone
except my inept Jetsall season. They lost to the Rams despite Josh scoring six touchdowns, and gave up six TDs to the Lions in that thrilling game. The Broncos have a competent-if-not-awe-inspiring offence, and a more-than-competent defense; the Bills D is probably the worst unit in this game. Even so, it's hard to pick against Josh Allen here; he's been able to carry them this far, and the Broncos have generally not looked good against other good teams this year. Additionally, their best player on defense, cornerback Pat Surtain, will have a limited impact in this game as the Bills don't have a true #1 WR for him to erase - Amari Cooper is generally considered their best, but his impact has been limited since he came over from Cleveland in a midseason trade; their most-used receivers have been third-year slot man Khalil Shakir (by targets and yards) and Eagles castoff Mack Hollins (by TDs), neither of whom are particularly frightening. No one on the Bills reached 1000 yards receiving, and Hollins led them in TDs with all of five. They barely even had a 1000-yard rusher, with James Cook managing only 9 past that mark (though he did lead the league with 16 rushing TDs). This team has been nothing but Josh Allen, and I have to back him to carry them through this matchup with a decent, but not inspiring Broncos team. With the points, however, 9 is a lot to give up for a team that doesn't have a strong defense; I would likely take the Broncos to cover.Green Bay Packers (+4.5) @ Philadelphia Eagles (Sun, 4:30 ET): In a rematch of the second game of the season, a green team with a 26-year-old mobile quarterback, a strong offensive line, an overload of weapons in the passing game and a rejuvenated veteran RB in his first year on a good team faces off against a green team with a 26-year old mobile quarterback (fun fact, Hurts is about two months older than Jordan Love), a strong offensive line, an overload of weapons in the passing game and a rejuvenated veteran RB in his first year on a good team. While that's a bit reductive, the two teams do legitimately have a number of parallels; the Eagles are (imo) basically a better version of the Packers. The Packers have 4 #2-quality receivers (or did, before Christian Watson went down), looking to overwhelm you with options; the Eagles have 2 #1 quality WRs, forcing you to choose which one to focus on while the other beats your worst corner. The Packers have a continuous tradition of having a top-10 offensive line; the Eagles have a continuous tradition of having a top-3 offensive line. The Packers went out and got Josh Jacobs in free agency coming off a down year in a terrible organization; the Eagles went out and got Saquon. Everything the Packers do, the Eagles seem to do better. Both have solid defenses, but the Eagles is (again) just a better one than the Packers. They are the better team on paper, and should win this game. The one place the Eagles have a disadvantage, in my opinion, is coaching: I would rather have Matt LaFleur than the oft-maligned Nick Sirianni. Unfortunately for them, coaching is one of the more significant areas to have that disadvantage; that said, they're so talented it's hard for me to really argue the other way. I'd take the Eagles to win the game and cover the spread.
Washington Commies (+3) @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers (Sun, 8:00 ET): In one of the biggest surprises of the season, the Commies rode rookie QB Jayden Daniels and new HC Dan Quinn to the playoffs after being one of the worst teams in the league last year. Although they did have to pull out some improbable wins (including a Hail Mary) to get here, they are by no means undeserving; it was clear pretty early that they were legitimately a good team, and other than when Daniels was limited with a rib injury they looked good pretty much the whole season through. The Bucs had an interesting season, handing the Eagles their only real ass-kicking of the year but playing below-.500 during their rough early schedule before rolling through the easier back half to clinch the (weak) NFC South once again behind touchdown king Baker Mayfield, 11-time 1000-yard receiver Mike Evans, and a combo of WR Chris Godwin (before a season-ending knee injury) and rookies Bucky Irving and Jalen McMillan, who took off after Godwin went down. I would back the Bucs, but this is probably the weakest matchup in the NFC, only rivalled by Chargers-Texans for weakest overall.
Minnesota Vikings (+1) @ Los Angeles Rams (Mon, 8:00 ET): After a horrific offseason featuring (among other things) the season-ending injury of first-round rookie QB JJ McCarthy and the death of fourth-round rookie DB Khyree Jackson (car accident), it's safe to say things were not looking up for the Vikings entering the year. While they still featured All-World WR Justin Jefferson and a good OL, their offseason additions of aging and injury-prone RB Aaron Jones and retread QB Sam Darnold (who was expected to be replaced at some point by McCarthy before his knee went pop) on one-year contracts did not inspire confidence that this team could improve on the one that lost QB Kirk Cousins to a monster contract from the Falcons. In a remarkable turnaround, probable Coach of the Year Kevin O'Connell rallied the team and they came out firing, winning nine straight games after losing to the eventual #1 seed Lions in week 1. Sam Darnold turned in by far the best year of his career, throwing for over 4000 yards and 35 touchdowns en route to a likely Comeback Player of the Year award and a large payday this offseason. The team finished with 14-3 record, their best in more than 25 years. In the last game of the year, they played the division rival Lions with a chance at the #1 seed; however, after a close first half in which the Vikings couldn't find the end zone the Lions (and standout RB Jahmyr Gibbs) ran away with the game in the second half. They will try to bounce back this week against the Los Angeles Rams, who overcame the retirement of all-world DT Aaron Donald and a horrific start to the season that saw standout WRs Cooper Kupp and Puka Nacua both miss several games to win the mediocre NFC West. Sean McVay continues to be one of the best coaches in the league, and the offense led by veteran QB Matt Stafford was supplemented by a hungry young defense, particularly a defensive line that remained strong even after Donald's retirement due to second-year DT (and talented singer) Kobie Turner and rookies Braden Fiske and probable Defensive Rookie of the Year Jared Verse. This should be an interesting game, as the two coaches know each other very well; O'Connell served as the Rams' offensive coordinator in their Super Bowl-winning season before accepting the head coaching job with the Vikings. While the Vikings have been a very strong team throughout the season, the emotional letdown of losing the #1 seed to the Lions has me worried about a potential hangover in this one against a Rams team that, while young on the surface, retains plenty of institutional playoff knowledge with McVay, Stafford and Kupp. Many of the Vikings' important pieces have never been important pieces on playoff teams; how will they respond? With the line of 1 implying this as basically a pick'em, this is considered the most even matchup of any, and it's definitely the one I have the hardest time choosing. In the end, I think I'll go with the Rams' experience taking it over the Vikings, but my confidence level is not high.
Is your opinion on the Vikings-Rams altered by the game being moved to Arizona because of the fires?
It seems to me that often as not tragedies make teams/players more connected as a unit, rather than preoccupied with their off-field lives (as I would be - if my house burned down you can bet my focus at work would slip that week.) So for now I'll stay with my original prediction (even though most of them this week have been wrong!)
I'd also say that LA suffers from a bad home crowd to begin with, so it probably hurts them less to lose their home game than it would the Packers or Bears. Whole thing is pretty unpredictable.
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