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Notes -
I noticed there is a slow drible of talk about some of Trumps Executive Orders. I kinda wanted to talk about all of them as a package, and some of them more specifically. I would advise everyone to just go ahead and read all of the executive orders (there are about 50):
https://www.whitehouse.gov/news/
They are generally short, about a page long. The titles are descriptive of the goals, so you can even skip reading many of them. And you don't need to hear about them via a second hand source.
I got the general gist of all of them within an hour or two on Inauguration day (when they were posted).
My general impressions:
I shared this opinion, but Noah Smith blackpilled me on tariffs. The tariffs might be sold as economic policy to the base, but they are not. Its pure geopolitics.
Xi Jinping's economic policy has been very successful in deindustrializing other countries. He has paid dearly for it, and now sits on absurd industrial overcapacity in everything from steel to batteries. But that doesn't matter. The pay-off is huge - not only is half the world absolutely depended on China economically, in case of a conventional war, China could force a stale mate and then it can out-last and out-produce the entire rest of the world, combined.
And just like Xi paid dearly for this policy, maybe the west also needs to pay to counter it. Tariffs will be paid by all US consumers, and it's very possible they will get poorer for it. But that doesn't matter.
I'm not so sure. I'd be convinced of this if we end up with tariffs only on china and whoever ends in their trade-alliance. At the moment however, tariffs are also aimed at allies, and we blocked the nippon-steel merger with Japan which could have also helped a struggling domestic manufacturer. This doesn't really seem like it's about geopolitics, just classic protectionism. I suppose it could be both. The CHIPS act definitely had a strong geopolitical motive.
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