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PaperclipPerfector  3mo ago (text post)   1116 thread views

Transnational Thursday for January 30, 2025

Transnational Thursday is a thread for people to discuss international news, foreign policy or international relations history. Feel free as well to drop in with coverage of countries you’re interested in, talk about ongoing dynamics like the wars in Israel or Ukraine, or even just whatever you’re reading.

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Surprised this hasn't been posted yet(mods if it's better suited for culture war thread please just move it)- the AFD and CDU have just voted together in the German parliament on immigration. https://www.nbcnews.com/news/world/germanys-far-right-upends-convention-landmark-vote-immigration-rcna189959

Now it was a non-binding vote, but the German left is already posturing about it:

With Chancellor Olaf Scholz’s Social Democrats (SPD) and the Greens opposed to the motions, however, Merz knew he would have to rely on support of the AfD. The land border measure passed with a slim majority of just three votes, while the security proposal was rejected.

Critics including Scholz argue that Merz’s tactics shatter the taboo among mainstream parties against working with the AfD — a party that is monitored by German security services on suspicion of being right-wing extremist — in an effort to keep it from power.

“Since the founding of the Federal Republic of Germany over 75 years ago, there has always been a clear consensus among all democrats: We do not make common cause with the extreme right,” Scholz said in a speech to parliament.

“You have broken this basic consensus of our republic in the heat of the moment,” he told Merz.

Relevantly, there are elections coming up- and if the CDU wins the most seats, but nowhere near a majority, as seems likely, this move seems to render it much more difficult to get coalition partners from the German left. Especially if- as also seems likely- AfD is the second biggest party.

What CDU did is pretty much the only sensible answer to the rise of AfD. Parties like AfD only get votes because there's an issue or issues that the established parties stubbornly refuse to tackle. A major party agreeing to take on the issue kills the reason to vote AfD. Conversely, taking a CW stance on the issue like the left side typically does means keeping AfD high in the polls.

Not sure if it will affect the upcoming elections much, too late and too sharp of a turn, but in the longer run, if the stance is not reversed, AfD will likely fade away. Unless it will manage to pick up another issue to replace immigration.

The interesting question is the long run, beyond a few years. There's a reason why Germany needs immigrant workforce.

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