site banner

Small-Scale Question Sunday for November 6, 2022

Do you have a dumb question that you're kind of embarrassed to ask in the main thread? Is there something you're just not sure about?

This is your opportunity to ask questions. No question too simple or too silly.

Culture war topics are accepted, and proposals for a better intro post are appreciated.

4
Jump in the discussion.

No email address required.

Is there something like Nukemap that tells you if your home is at risk of destruction or irradiation in the event of a nuclear war? I read something a while ago that said that, realistically, most nukes won't be Tsar Bomba-levels of powerful and not all places are at risk of getting hit with overpressure (e.g. cities won't be hit in the exact center), assuming the enemy isn't going for sheer casualty numbers.

Nothing like that seemed to exist when I looked, and in hindsight the reason seems obvious: for it to be accurate you'd basically need to know the targeting plans of your attackers, which are naturally going to be as secret as secrets can get, and which are pure data (as opposed to e.g. numbers of missiles whose silos/subs/etc can show up to satellite overflight) and thus easy to keep secret.

If you're worried about Putin you might make some inaccurate guesses, though. Russia has one currently-deployed warhead per 200k Americans. Divide that into your local population, deploy to maximize damage. See what happens if you place half as many warheads (assuming some will be targeted at US silos or reserved for subsequent deterrence), see what happens if you place twice as many (assuming many not-currently-deployed warheads are having that status upgraded right now).

My guesses were not reassuring. With a lowball estimate and low or reversed winds my house might remain liveable, but with a typical wind vector it's a fallout zone, and with a less optimistic warhead count it's rubble.