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Notes -
The Philippines is our little brown brothers, so I think they have just a bit more leeway than Trump’s rivals. And besides you have disputes with China but not us.
I think if nukes fly there’s no such thing as a limited exchange, and the pressure on an American president to wipe Shanghai off the map following even a tactical nuke use would be so immense that China wouldn’t dare unless there’s likely to be an invasion of the mainland.
Americans think other nations can read their minds.
After Trump's tantrums, every nation is is questioning their goodwill with America.
Among nations, anti-immigration rhetoric is perceived as xenophobic rhetoric.
America first is seen as an acknowledgement of American transactionality in every partnership.
This is infantilizing. It has a population and GDP equivalent to Vietnam, a nation to whom America lost its most recent war in the Indo-pacific.
Non-western nations understand that white lives matter more. That's why Ukraine was important. If America is okay with letting whites die in Ukraine, then there are going to be objectively fewer fucks to give when brown nations are in crisis. America's strongest military alliance (NATO) is Trump's hobby horse to beat on. Why would a non-NATO nation be treated any better ?
If China is the to be the next global superpower, it makes sense for Philippines to ally with a natural trading partner next door, rather than their colonial ex-masters on the other side of the world.
Ukraine was important because it’s invaded by Russia. Guiana would be very important for similar reasons if Venezuela actually invaded it. The Philippines is traditionally part of America’s sphere of influence and many Americans are very proud of MacArthur choosing to liberate it from the Japanese even when it was not the ‘correct’ strategic decision. American colonialism held that making little America on American principles could uplift the natives and American elites maintain this idea today, while hoi polloi happily extend the Monroe doctrine(translation- only we get to bully you) to former colonies.
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