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Cross posting from /r/credibledefense, but thought Mottizens might have an angle on this.
As someone with family in the Philippines, I’ve been feeling concerned about risks presented by the country’s close alliance with an increasingly volatile US, especially in the context of a war in the West Philippine Sea/SCS that the US is looking more and more likely to lose. A few years ago, the US felt to me like a better partner than China after Duterte’s reconciliation efforts with Xi were largely rebuffed, and since then we’ve seen a major investment in new US bases in the Philippines, especially Luzon. However, a number of factors make me think that the Philippines would be better off explicitly pivoting towards neutrality.
First, there’s the simple fact that US naval construction remains deeply and utterly broken, as I’m sure most of us are aware, while China’s continues to grow at pace. The starkness of this disparity has grown in recent years and it no longer looks like the US has the state capacity to fix it. Consequently, the likelihood of a conflict over Taiwan that goes badly for the US and leaves the region in control of China is higher than it used to be. Moreover, while the US can pack its bags and go back to Guam, the Philippines will forever be stuck less than 200 miles off the coast of mainland China.
Second, and much more recent, there’s the shift towards a more erratic and transactional foreign policy by the US. While US bases in the Philippines are of mutual benefit for now, it’s not inconceivable to imagine a rug-pull exercise whereby the US pulls its forces out in exchange for a concession from China. Likewise, it’s questionable whether the old ideals of loyalty would mean the US would help with reconstruction if the Philippines got hit hard by Chinese missile strikes in a Taiwan conflict. Additionally, many of the soft-power inducements provided by USAID projects in the Philippines have now been cancelled. I don’t want to turn this into a discussion of the Trump administration per se, but the reality is that US foreign strategy has undergone a colossal shift in the last two months, and that changes the incentives for its partners.
Third, while China wants its extravagant claims to islands in the West Philippine Sea to be recognised, and probably wants economic and political influence in the Philippines itself, there’s zero indication or historical precedent to suggest that China wants to annex any of the major islands in the Philippines. Consequently, it’s really not clear to me that the security advantages provided by US forces are significant enough to justify the very real and kinetic risks associated with hosting US forces. I’m particularly concerned about nuclear risks, where in a rapidly spiralling conflict China might judge nuclear strikes on US military targets in the Philippines to be less likely to escalate to all-out strategic nuclear warfare than eg attacks on US bases in Guam or Japan.
Fourth and finally, the current presence of US bases in the Philippines does offer them a bargaining chip. It seems to me that the Philippines could basically offer a “Finlandization” deal to China where it would commit to total neutrality in any conflict in the region and withdraw from Enhanced Defence Cooperation Agreement with the US. Probably to sweeten the package it would have to make some painful concessions to China on disputed islands like Scarborough Shoal, but it could potential walk away with robust guarantees of long-term functional autonomy and non-interference, conditional on remaining neutral.
I’d be interested to hear others’ thoughts, though! Am I being too bleak, or missing some upsides to the alliance for the Philippines?
The Philippines is our little brown brothers, so I think they have just a bit more leeway than Trump’s rivals. And besides you have disputes with China but not us.
I think if nukes fly there’s no such thing as a limited exchange, and the pressure on an American president to wipe Shanghai off the map following even a tactical nuke use would be so immense that China wouldn’t dare unless there’s likely to be an invasion of the mainland.
Americans think other nations can read their minds.
After Trump's tantrums, every nation is is questioning their goodwill with America.
Among nations, anti-immigration rhetoric is perceived as xenophobic rhetoric.
America first is seen as an acknowledgement of American transactionality in every partnership.
This is infantilizing. It has a population and GDP equivalent to Vietnam, a nation to whom America lost its most recent war in the Indo-pacific.
Non-western nations understand that white lives matter more. That's why Ukraine was important. If America is okay with letting whites die in Ukraine, then there are going to be objectively fewer fucks to give when brown nations are in crisis. America's strongest military alliance (NATO) is Trump's hobby horse to beat on. Why would a non-NATO nation be treated any better ?
If China is the to be the next global superpower, it makes sense for Philippines to ally with a natural trading partner next door, rather than their colonial ex-masters on the other side of the world.
Ukraine was important because it’s invaded by Russia. Guiana would be very important for similar reasons if Venezuela actually invaded it. The Philippines is traditionally part of America’s sphere of influence and many Americans are very proud of MacArthur choosing to liberate it from the Japanese even when it was not the ‘correct’ strategic decision. American colonialism held that making little America on American principles could uplift the natives and American elites maintain this idea today, while hoi polloi happily extend the Monroe doctrine(translation- only we get to bully you) to former colonies.
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