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Culture War Roundup for the week of March 10, 2025

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The US-Canada trade war is off on off on off! Retaliatory 50% tariffs on steel and aluminum that is. The rest are still on.

"This cannot continue," Trump wrote. "The only thing that makes sense is for Canada to become our cherished Fifty First State. The artificial line of separation drawn many years ago will finally disappear, and we will have the safest and most beautiful Nation anywhere in the World," he added.

“And your brilliant anthem, 'O Canada,' will continue to play, but now representing a GREAT and POWERFUL STATE within the greatest Nation that the World has ever seen!"

Even if Canada agreed to become a US state, Congress wouldn’t go for it because it would permanently cede every national election to the Democratic Party. Surely someone has told Trump!? Disregarding statehood as the {only way to stop this}, I’m guessing steel factories take longer than 4 years to build. An agent of chaos indeed!

So, what is the off ramp? The US annexes Canada and changes its name to Canada? Border state republicans take away Trump’s toys tariffs until he can play nicely? Global depression? Or the continuation of flip flopping tariffs to placate boredom?

https://www.cnbc.com/2025/03/11/trump-raises-canadian-steel-aluminum-tariffs-to-50percent-in-retaliation-for-ontario-energy-duties.html

My (nominally) fellow Canadians' response to this is possibly the stupidest thing I've seen them do in recent years. Clearly the 51th state ribs are a joke, but in the case they were not and there was a clear intent to annex then the answer is not to act defiant. Canada has no power, no military, no economic leverage on America.

If I were named Canada's Trump wrangler, I'd call him up and have frank negociations on what he really wants (as opposed to the excuse to give him the power to do it, Fentanyl). What he wants and expects tariffs to do is reshoring, right? Canada can help! Canada could offer to match US tariffs on China; we've been having a tense relationship with China in recent years anyway, and it would increase the market for american manufactured goods. If necessary get some Canadian companies to sweeten the pot by promising some investments or partnerships with the US.

Trump's actions have not been mere ribbing. Trump also brought up something much more fundamental. He told Mr. Trudeau that he did not believe that the treaty that demarcates the border between the two countries was valid and that he wants to revise the boundary. He offered no further explanation. Also:

One such call was between Secretary of Commerce Howard Lutnick — who at the time had not yet been confirmed by the Senate — and Canada’s finance minister, Dominic LeBlanc. The two men had been communicating regularly since they had met at Mar-a-Lago, Mr. Trump’s home and club in Florida, during Mr. Trudeau’s visit there in early December.

Mr. Lutnick called Mr. LeBlanc after the leaders had spoken on Feb. 3, and issued a devastating message, according to several people familiar with the call: Mr. Trump, he said, had come to realize that the relationship between the United States and Canada was governed by a slew of agreements and treaties that were easy to abandon.

Mr. Trump was interested in doing just that, Mr. Lutnick said. He wanted to eject Canada out of an intelligence-sharing group known as the Five Eyes that also includes Britain, Australia and New Zealand. He wanted to tear up the Great Lakes agreements and conventions between the two nations that lay out how they share and manage Lakes Superior, Huron, Erie and Ontario. And he is also reviewing military cooperation between the two countries, particularly the North American Aerospace Defense Command.

And, sure, it's Trump, the main reason he's saying these things is because it makes this kind of news. He's probably not going to do any of that, and annexation seems implausible.

If I were named Canada's Trump wrangler, I'd call him up and have frank negociations on what he really wants (as opposed to the excuse to give him the power to do it, Fentanyl). What he wants and expects tariffs to do is reshoring, right? Canada can help! Canada could offer to match US tariffs on China; we've been having a tense relationship with China in recent years anyway, and it would increase the market for american manufactured goods.

They have done this, it's part of how they got the initial set of tariff delays, but Trump has not been clear about what he wants or how Canada could actually accomplish it!

I'd call him up and have frank negociations on what he really wants

That's exactly what Trudeau tried to do when he visited Mar-a-Lago. But a big part of what Trump really wants is fealty from his imperial vassals. Reshoring, unity against China, unity against Europe/whoever doesn't matter as much as personal loyalty to him. Trudeau has been far too opposed to Trump before to credibly demonstrate loyalty now, and I doubt that he even tried.

Another big part of what Trump really wants is to come away from the whole exchange with "a good deal." He knows he can get a better "deal" by holding a constant and ever-changing threat of tariffs over everyone. He doesn't care about the cross-border companies trying to figure out if they'll be able to pay their truck drivers next month, as long as in some way Trump can say the other side caved to his demands.

Now Carney has a tough balancing act. If he doesn't appease Canadian anti-Americanism, he'll quickly be out of a job. But he can't do that and give Trump the victory that he wants. In normal negotiations, there'd be room to say one thing publicly and do something else privately, but I don't think private acquiescence would be enough for Trump.

In normal negotiations, there'd be room to say one thing publicly and do something else privately

Of course, the trick about Trump is that he doesn't negotiate privately. This results in the entire nation (as a collection of individual political actors), and to a point the whole democratic world, forced to share the butthurt in equal measure rather than it be absorbed by the politicians like it's "supposed to" be.

Which is partially where "but muh rudeness" comes from.

If he doesn't appease Canadian anti-Americanism, he'll quickly be out of a job. But he can't do that and give Trump the victory that he wants.

Perhaps it's a lose-lose situation for him either way: the tariffs he's imposed are more extensive (and far more destructive to Canada) than Trump's, and the only tariffs he could impose (i.e. upon China) only benefit those who won't be voting for him.

They do have some economic leverage, and a little bit of military leverage (we get actually a LOT of mileage out of NORAD and a little out of intel collaboration), but a decent chunk of it is "nice-to-haves" and/or inertia. But yeah, acting offended is silly. It's a classic Trump power move, and the winning response is to be firm and quiet.

But it does still seem so misguided albeit predictable that we're feuding with them instead of, you know, teaming up against China. IIRC they've even expressed willingness to go along with it, which is why I think this is more Trump being his typical correct-vibes but terrible-execution self.