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naraburns  nihil supernum  1yr ago (text post)   Edited 1yr ago   34464 thread views

Culture War Roundup for the week of November 14, 2022

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Russian rockets crossed over the Polish border, killing two farmers.

Polish government official says national security meeting was called due to "emergency situation"

Pentagon is ' aware '

https://www.cnn.com/europe/live-news/russia-ukraine-war-news-11-15-22/index.html

This stirred something in me that is rarely stirred (I was born in Poland). Some sort of patriotic anger. The Poles, along with the former Soviet states and most of Eastern Europe, absolutely loathe the Russians.

I imagine this isn't enough to send in the troops - but I could see myself reading a history book in 30 years about how Poland, and by extension, everyone else, were pulled into the Great Russian War by a bomb and two dead farmers.

Edit: Russia calls it provocation that Poland stated this

https://english.alarabiya.net/News/world/2022/11/16/Russia-says-Polish-statements-of-Russian-missiles-hitting-its-territory-provocation-

Many seem to think that it's a specifically Ukrainian S-300 air defence missile. I predict this will just be swept under the rug.

https://twitter.com/EliotHiggins/status/1592605529557585922

There was a similar event at the start of the war when a crappy Soviet era drone somehow penetrated NATO air defences and landed in Croatia, though nobody was hurt. Nothing came of it.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2022_Zagreb_Tu-141_crash

At least for now Poles insist it was a Russian missile. Just came in:

https://www.gov.pl/web/dyplomacja/komunikat-w-zwiazku-z-wezwaniem-ambasadora-federacji-rosyjskiej-do-msz

Polish MFA summoned the Russian ambassador.

They'll too take a huge credibility hit if that's indeed a Ukrainian missile.

Well they would say that, wouldn't they? Likewise, the Russians say it's a provocation of some kind, their favourite word to use this year. Pro-Russian twitter has of course all lined up around it being a Ukrainian missile, as you would expect.

I chose Eliot's post because he's one of the vaguely pro-Ukrainian, semi-'official' commentators on this war. If someone with a bias towards the Ukrainians thinks it was a Ukrainian error, then it holds extra weight as an opinion.

Right. I don't dismiss the possibility of it being an accident involving a Ukrainian AA missile. Yet I think it's prudent to wait for the results of the investigation. I don't think it would be possible to hide the results of it. Of course, if Americans and Poles will come out and say "it was 100% a Russian missile" — Russians will try to discredit this conclusion, but it will be enough for me.

Well they would say that, wouldn't they?

Also I don't really know how much Polish diplomats value their credibility and how competent they are. Ukrainians had several fuckups, like voting against American declaration on human rights situation in Xinjiang, and then backtracking; or voting against Israel in the UN, and then asking Israel for arms; so even being a Ukrainian I can imagine them screwing it up and lying, even though I wouldn't like that to be the case obviously. But I don't know about Poland.

I think the Poles are hedging their bets. They cleverly said 'it's a Russian-made missile' which it would be even if they fired it since the S-300 is a Soviet-era weapon with some upgrades. The Soviets are basically interchangeable with Russia.

https://www.gov.pl/web/dyplomacja/komunikat-w-zwiazku-z-wezwaniem-ambasadora-federacji-rosyjskiej-do-msz

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