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Where is the American Dream?
There has always been a dream of wealth and fortune in America. Drawing immigrants and inspiring the population. A sense that you can start from nothing or very little and pull yourself up through hard work, a bit of smarts, and a bit of luck. But I find myself a little unsure of how do this lately.
Learn to code
A decade ago there was a refrain among the elite "learn to code". That was how the coal miners in West Virginia would replace their dirty global warming causing jobs with something less harmful for the environment.
I know how to code. I've been coding for more than a decade. I'm out of a job and unlike in previous years I'm not being assaulted by job offers on LinkedIn every day.
The talk I'm hearing (and believing) around twitter and silicon valley is that AI is replacing coders. Or at least that is enough of a perception that hiring is down.
I'm at least a senior web developer, but for the new kids coming out of college... I don't know. I used to know guys a few years younger than me asking for help finding a job out of college and I'd do a resume tune-up and send it back to them and they'd tell me thanks but they managed to get a job already.
Nowadays I don't even think telling people to go into coding is a good idea.
Heal the sick
There does seem to be a consistent growth industry in medicine. I'm certain this is true. However I feel this is a bad omen.
Medicine has this feel to me like it is a consumption industry. The typically unhealthy are often old people that aren't really producing lots of goods and services anymore. It's savings that they are using to prolong their life.
Maybe if all the medical spending was on life extension I'd feel this was a good use of money.
But forget about how I feel about the industry. Is this any place to get rich as part of the American dream? If you enjoy terrible hours, lots of bureaucratic red tape, and years of mandatory training then it's all for you. It's certainly not available as a quick career pivot.
Become a social media star
Another avenue of wealth open to seemingly everyone is to go on social media and become an internet sensation. Sell advertising and related products.
Im honestly not sure if this is a realistic avenue these days or not. I do enjoy quite a few niche media things. They seemingly make a living even if they aren't wealthy.
The downsides seem numerous.
Where do I go make money?
Some of this really just boils down to my personal job security. Where do I go to start making money?
But the the rest boils down to where do my kids go to start making money?
My mom was able to give me good advice a decade and a half ago to go into coding. It worked out well for a while.
Now I'm in a bind of figuring out what to do next, and what paths to lead my kids down for good career paths.
The AI-lephant in the room
LLMs certainly change things. I'm sorta operating on an assumption that language based things will be solved and done for. If it involves typing up or reading and comprehending a thing that seems like something current AIs can generally do better than 95% of people.
I'm assuming other distinct areas will not be solved for. Not because I think they are unsolvable, but just planning becomes meaningless at a certain point. But they also don't seem currently solved.
The American dream is still alive and quite strong, and we can see this by the large number of immigrants risking life and limb still trying to get into the country to this day. But for the average American it's a bit more faded and one big reason is pretty simple.
What is it? Life is simply better to begin with. Even the poorer end of rural Americans still tend to have somewhat reliable food, clean water, safe shelter, entertainment that even the kings of old could only dream of (who needs a royal jester when there's millions of them on your TV and computer), good looking comfortable clothing, and medical treatment among many many other things. That's not to say there aren't still problems but the lives of most citizens are substantially better than even many upper class of the 1800s.
You don't have to go to the big city living next to horse manure filled streets with one arm from a factory accident anymore because the alternative is somehow even worse. Despite the gap in wealth increasing substantially the actual life experience has narrowed. Even the average home is getting larger, putting them closer and closer to mansions despite smaller household sizes. There's simply less to aspire towards, and the American dream has always been one of aspiration.
It takes a somewhat adaptive and entrepreneurial mindset to really make major money from nowhere. Any simple answer is liable to go the same way they've always gone, a flood of new workers over time chasing the simple money.
But the good news is, if things go well, we might even need to worry about it too much. Perhaps AI and automation are so incredible that even the poorest of rurals will now benefit from the personal maids and private chefs with very little work done in exchange. The American Dream may dry up completely for citizens because we'll have reached the peak of the mountain and find ourselves nowhere else to climb. (And hopefully not some sort of great war over resources wiping out most humans or some other doomsday scenario).
Philosophically that scares me, how will we find meaning in this life where no jobs are even needed anymore? Can humans handle Paradise? But if we disregard that sort of concern for a second, then the life is better and you will have no need for an American dream any longer because that dream will be the default.
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