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More Congressional procedure shenanigans? We talked last week about some House rule inside baseball related to a proposed rule to allow new mothers to vote by proxy. I want to somewhat resurrect the topic now because it's also important for the ongoing tariff discussion. First some background.
On February 1st Trump declared a national emergency related to fentanyl and illegal aliens. This declaration was a necessary precondition to Trump's using the International Emergency Economic Powers Act to impose tariffs on Mexico and Canada. There exists a mechanism (50 USC 1622) for Congress to terminate a declared national emergency. In particular 1622(c) describes the process for the joint resolution between the two houses. This joint resolution is subject to presidential veto, but can be overridden by a supermajority of both houses. Back on April 2nd the Senate passed Senate Joint Resolution 37 which was a joint resolution to terminate Trump's declared emergency on February 1st. 16229(c)(3) provides:
So, within 15 calendar days after Senate passage the resolution is supposed to be reported out of committee and then voted on by the House within 3 calendar days after that. There is, of course, a bit of a wrinkle to this (hence this post). Recall back to mid-March and the House Resolution 211. This resolution established the terms of debate for the concurrent resolution funding the government for the rest of the year. Section 4 of that resolution provides:
Basically, the 15/3 day mandatory periods are put on hold for rest of the Congressional session (which I believe ends Sep 30th). Hat tip to Gabe Fleischer at Wake Up To Politics who wrote about this at the time. This is the same kind of thing Johnson tried to do (unsuccessfully) with the new mother proxy rule. Other House members have noticed and filed their own resolutions starting the clock on such bills again. Though whether they pass remains to be seen.
I bring this up now because I've read some reporting online (no links yet) that Johnson intends to do something similar with the actual Congressional budget, adding a similar provision to stop considering of any joint resolution ending the national emergency Trump declared on April 2nd that form the basis of his current tariffs.
The foregoing is, in a practical sense, a little academic. If a supermajority of the Senate and House wanted to end Trump's national emergencies they could. I suppose the key here is that these rules provide a kind of cover for people to be vocally against Trump's tariffs without having to go on record in opposition. Trying to get the average voter to understand the intricacies of Congressional procedure as opposed to "your rep voted for/against this bill" is a herculean task. This is also not the only way Trump's tariffs could end. He could change his mind (as I write this I hear announcements that we are increasing tariffs on China and changing all other countries to a flat 10% tariff). There's also a lawsuit that Trump's emergencies do not satisfy the "unusual and extraordinary" conditions of 50 USC 1701 and so are invalid.
Fascinating. And I agree about the key at the end. In fact, I would say a key function of party leaders (esp the Speaker) is to insulate their members from having to go on the record with hard votes. Vulnerable members have nothing to gain from voting either way -- against it and they'll anger the MAGA base, for it, and they'll alienate everyone else.
There's as much to learn by what isn't being voted on. For example, no one is voting on a Federal abortion ban these days.
Just want to highlight how good of an observation this is - no matter who is in power.
One could even measure how duplicitous legislators are based on how much they campaign on something vs. how much they legislate on it. Would sure be a disappointment if the golden goose that serves as a war drum for your supporters was a problem that was suddenly solved by coherent legislation.
Tinfoil hat: there's little incentive for American conservatives to create any legislation around immigration. Action through executive enforcement, while not as effective as legislation and reform, will keep the base energized and conservatives in power. What's the equivalent for the progressives? Taxes on the rich?
People used to say abortion. Ironically, they went in both directions: Democrats didn't want to codify Roe (somehow) because they liked Republicans threatening it and giving their voters a reason to get out, and that Republicans loved fund-raising on it and wouldn't want the enemy mobilization that would follow if they actually caught the car. And then...
Ultimately, I think both explanations are naively cynical and don't account for practical difficulties you face when actually legislating and are a bit optimistic in attributing the gridlock and decay of Congress to the master plans of legislators. I don't think they're acting.
I think there’s definitely some acting, but also just getting a huge group of people to agree enough on something in the absence of coercion is really hard. US whips are impotent, and congresscritters are fairly free to vote however they please.
It’s hard enough to get 5 people to agree on dinner plans. Imagine trying to get 538 people to agree on spending $200 billion on something!
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