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Notes -
New data from Pew on the Israel-Palestinian topic
Negative views of Israel have increased, but in a unique way according to demographics. 50% of Republican-leaning Americans under 50yo have a negative view, up from 35% in 2022. For the Dem-leaning in this age bracket, there’s been only a 3% shift toward negative views. For 50yo+ Republicans, negative views have increased by just 3% to sit at 23%; but for Dems in this age bracket, there’s been a 13% increase to 66%. Most of the shift in the public’s dislike of Israel has occurred among younger Republicans and older Democrats. This is interesting data, because there’s been an idea circulating that the shift in public perception of Israel is driven by younger minority progressives. And while that’s a big part, the data really tells us that Americans have changed their view in recent years in ways unaccounted for by demographic change, but which can be explained by the war. Because in just three years, from 2022 to 2025, we’re seeing huge shifts in regards to views on Israel while demographics have only changed slightly.
I think this shift is clear when looking at the media young people consume. Theo Von inconspicuously doing an “early life check” on the Sackler family in his interview with JD Vance; Shane Gillis on KillTony a few days ago; the popular youth streamer “iShowSpeed” refusing to talk to people if they mention they are Israeli. Pro-Israel Americans need a feasible game plan for dealing with this shift which doesn’t fall victim to the Streisand Effect. The current strategy of deporting foreign national students is bad, because the negative publicity far outweighs the tiny changes on university campuses. Zone of Interest came out in 2023, and our media reported on October 7th crimes well enough, yet these clearly didn’t move the needle on public favorability. There doesn’t appear to be any youth figure who can shift perceptions.
The problem with publicizing vicious terrorist murders in an attempt to lower popularity of one side of a conflict, is that the target demographic doesn't like the other side, and is openly in favor of vicious terrorist murder against people they don't like.
I don't endorse it, but decapitation strikes against specific people in power seem like a different thing from "vicious terrorist murder". Mangione would have a lot fewer supporters if he'd disemboweled the CEO's entire family as opposed to 'just' killing the specific guy. Fantasies about assassinating Trump are even further from "terrorism" - they stem from a belief that Trump is uniquely bad and killing him, specifically, will save the country. It's not about terror tactics to frighten off the rest of the outgroup.
Support for the Palestinians does not seem to have been diminished by the Gazans murdering indiscriminately. Trump's attempted assassin killing and wounding random bystanders didn't seem to make a dent in the calculus. Danielson was a rando, and his murder was openly celebrated, and his killer received significant support. Rittenhouse and Gardner were randos; that did not help them.
Those who count on ideological consistency to keep a lid on lawless violence are setting themselves up for disappointment. Humans like harming the outgroup, and are very good at rationalization.
That they are. But mark the difference. Clean assassinations targeting Bad People(TM) is what people are openly in favor of. "Vicious terrorist murder" like Oct 7 will certainly be rationalized away or swept under the rug completely - but it's not openly endorsed.
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