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I think that the DOGE cuts are just a part of the reason why academics are avoiding the US.
Another aspect is that cutting edge science is often very international.
Say you want to organize a conference. You could organize a conference for US residents, but that might exclude two thirds of the researchers. Of the remaining third, half would probably prefer a more international venue. Or you could try to invite the international community, but these people read the news. They know that any foreigner is staying in the US with the grace of DJT, they also know that academic excellence is not a focus of his administration, and they all have heard horror stories of German tourists being detained for weeks by ICE. If you are a professor from Europe, would you not much rather go to a conference in the PRC instead? Even if they deny you entry to the country because of some tweet you made a few years ago, they will likely treat you much better than ICE until you are deported because for the CCP attracting international science is a priority.
Or say you want to find a new professor for some US university. The most qualified candidate does not have a US passport. He knows that any "permanent" residency can be easily revoked by the state department for any reason, and he is aware that green cards are being cancelled for political speech. Even if he is a MAGA-fan, he is aware that now that Trump has established this precedent, the next administration will have a much easier time expelling foreign professors they don't like in turn.
I think it's worth noting that these conferences exist: for research close enough to ITAR and defense stuff, there really are "US persons only" academic conferences.
Imagine how easy it'd be to pick up a cute Chinese girlfriend at one of those. Just ask if she wants to come see your heat seeking missile.
that's funny, but they do not seek lifelong attachment here. What happens after she realizes you aren't in comitted relationship towards making heat seeking missiles?
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