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The most narrow-technical prediction win I've ever landed:
My Philadelphia Eagles, coming off a crushing Super Bowl victory over the Chiefs, had the 32nd pick out of 32 first round picks in the NFL draft, held last night.
In every fan discussion, I loudly predicted that there was no way Eagles GM Howie Roseman would pick at 32. He would either trade up to pick up a falling star in the mid 20s, or he would trade out of the first round and pick up an extra pick somewhere else. My reasoning being that 1) In mock drafts you often see a guy who was a consensus top-ten pick drop into the early 20s, but rarely past that; 2) Howie Roseman comes from some kind hyper-trade-oriented Jewish merchant genetic stock or he's sold his soul to Tzeentch or something, but he loves making trades, he's always trading two late round picks to move up five picks in the second and pick up a third next year then trading the future third to pick up two late round picks. He loves moving around; 3) the Eagles have tremendous job security for their staff and a roster without any serious holes, so they're free to do radical things. My logic felt so airtight that I put a bit of money on it among friends.
Well the draft comes around last night, my mom wants to watch it. I watch it with her to keep her company, but to be honest, it was a slog with the Eagles picking so late. And what do the Eagles do, around midnight? They make a trade, just like I predicted!, to move up one spot from 32 to 31, to jump another team and draft Jihaad Campbell, a local South Jersey kid.
I won the bets by the narrowest margin possible, and I look forward to buying the most tasteless off-brand t-shirts imaginable outside the Linc next year.
Congrats, I was wondering who would be so important that they'd trade up one place to take them, but Tzeentchian influence makes more sense than anything else!
Howie just can't help himself. He does rt every year, moving from 10 to 9 to get Jalen Carter, and moving up a couple spots to get Kelee Ringo, moving up to get Coop last year. Other front offices were saying anonymously that they just blocked the entire 215 area code on draft night because they weren't going to take any calls from Philadelphia, for fear of "losing" the trade. It's telling that the trade was with KC, arguably the front office with the most security right now outside of Howie.
Howie is a hero right now, but he also has a lot of trades that sort of seem pointless, or trades he arguably lost (Jahan Dotson last year, though you probably don't worry about it after he got three big playoff catches in a championship run). Dude just loves making obscure complicated trades.
I suppose it's good to have someone trading across all situations to see more about market prices. Kind of like all the silly lawsuits from history that become important case law today.
The problem for a market-maker in the NFL is that there are very few participants, most are in some degree of professional precarity, and all moves are publicly noted and debated. So very quickly you see situations where teams refuse to take Howie's calls, like Billy Beane in the NFL before him, because they don't want to be the next fool in the Howie mythos.
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