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PaperclipPerfector  4d ago (text post)   20545 thread views

Culture War Roundup for the week of April 28, 2025

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Considering how much of current American culture war debates revolve around national identity, sovereignty, and international influence, it makes me wonder: are conflicts like Russia’s move into Ukraine and China’s posture towards Taiwan fundamentally rooted in the same security dilemma, rather than pure expansionism?

I’ve been thinking about the deeper drivers behind Russia’s invasion of Ukraine and China’s stance on Taiwan.

For Russia, Ukraine joining NATO would have meant that a major military alliance would sit directly on its border, severely shrinking Russia’s strategic buffer zone. Similarly, for China, the growing U.S. military presence around Taiwan raises a direct security concern.

Since U.S.-China relations have deteriorated, there has been increasing discussion about the possibility of the U.S. deploying missiles or even establishing a permanent military presence in Taiwan. Given Taiwan’s geographic position, major Chinese cities like Fuzhou, Xiamen, and even Shanghai would fall within the range of intermediate-range missiles.

This makes the Taiwan issue not purely about nationalism or ideology, but also about very tangible security calculations.

In 2024, U.S. defense reports indicated a rising focus on “hardening Taiwan” against potential Chinese action（https://media.defense.gov/2024/Jan/19/2003375866/-1/-1/1/2024-NDS.PDF”

China has repeatedly emphasized that foreign military deployments in Taiwan would cross a “red line”（https://www.reuters.com/world/china/china-says-us-should-stop-official-exchanges-with-taiwan-2024-03-05/）

Ukraine joining NATO would have meant that a major military alliance would sit directly on its border

That was already true before the war (Poland, Baltic states), and even more so after Finland and Sweden joined up.

Man, isn't it weird how all the nations with direct experience of Mother Russia's loving embrace fight so hard to avoid feeling it once more?

Also, why can't people just listen to what Putin actually says? He's on some medieval LARP of Russians and Ukrainians being the same people. Richard Hanania had a great take on Tucker Carlson's interview with him:

I'm glad that we got to see this, because it revealed how out of touch Putin is. Tucker begins with a simple question of what the threat was on February 22. Putin's response spends half an hour on the entire history of Russia.

We're used to people in the Middle East talking like this. An obsession with deep history is the characteristic of cultures that fight wars that never end. No one wonder no one even in the Russian speaking part of Ukraine wants to be part of Russia. Modern people care about their own lives and freedom and want a vision of the future.

That's what Ukraine and the West offer. Not endless lectures from a grumpy uncle on how Vlad Vladimirovich sent love letters to Svetlana the Elegant in 1207 and why this proves that Russians and Ukrainians are one people.

When talking about geopolitics, the deeper someone goes in history, the more disconnected they are from modern reality, and the less likely they are to be a rational actor who can be negotiated with. Putin had arguments he could've started with about the US interfering in Russian affairs or whatever, but he's deranged enough to think that leading with a lecture on the history of the Slavic peoples is how you sell a war in the twenty first century.

Surely a case of free speech is the best disinfectant. I knew Putin talked a lot about history, I had no idea his brain had deteriorated to this point. Hopefully Russians can one day soon have a leader who cares about making their lives better, rather than fighting wars based on what he read in history books.

https://x.com/RichardHanania/status/1755750991964913902

Ukraine joining NATO would have meant that a major military alliance would sit directly on its border

That was already true before the war (Poland, Baltic states), and even more so after Finland and Sweden joined up.

Russia, like most countries, does not consider every square foot of their country equally important.

Remember of how in the first days of his special military operation, Putin tried to take Kiev? This was not a random whim, but made perfect strategic sense given his objectives. Taking the capital of a country will both disrupt that countries efforts to defend itself and send a clear message to its troops that the war is not going well and it might be better to stop resisting.

If you want to conquer France, a key objective is Paris. If you want to conquer England, you go for London. If you want to conquer Russia, taking Moscow early would be very helpful.

Look at a map. Anyone mad enough to start an invasion of Russia would want to start in Ukraine (or Belarus), and then strike straight for Moscow. It is just about 400km of steppe without big natural impediments. Starting from Finland, you would need to besiege St. Petersburg, and then advance through 500km of heavily forested area before you could invest Moscow.

Now, as I have argued above, even with Ukraine in NATO, Russia would be one of the countries which is least likely to get invaded, but it makes sense that Putin cares a lot more about Ukraine than he cares about Finland or Sweden.

400km of steppe without big natural impediments

What's the Russian Air Force doing while this hypothetical invasion force is rolling across wide open steppe?

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