Today is the day!
Poll aggregator: https://338canada.com/
Live results: https://newsinteractives.cbc.ca/elections/federal/2025/results/
- 61
- 3
ulyssessword
11d ago
(text post)
1698 thread views
Today is the day!
Poll aggregator: https://338canada.com/
Live results: https://newsinteractives.cbc.ca/elections/federal/2025/results/
Jump in the discussion.
No email address required.
Notes -
Trump's comments were incredibly influential in the election.
The boomer left has a very strange relationship with the US. They love Obama, vacation in the US all the time, and frequently fantasize about living in NYC. However they rage against the US and Americanization.
The "51st State" comments triggered a key part of their political identity.
The results aren't so much that Conservative support collapsed. It did go down a little, but the NDP basically committed suicide this election. Hyperbole, they can come back later obviously. But this is their worst result ever, and they've been running since 1963. 7 seats is 2% of the house. They got 9 seats in 1993, but that was 3% since there were fewer seats. They lost 70% of their seats in the House.
The Bloc Québécois also lost 10 seats, or 30% of their seats.
The Green Party went from 2 to 1.
Basically the Canadian left decided to rally behind Carney.
I think the motivation isn't so much that they thought anything would happen. It's more that they see Canada as a showpiece of centre left governance, and losing to the Conservatives after Trump's comments would be globally embarrassing.
There's a lot of dislike for how Trudeau II ran things but the Liberal Party brand is incredibly strong in Canada. Back in the run up to the first Quebec separation referendum in 1980, Trudeau I, in the name of national unity, talked the Conservatives (then the Progressive Conservatives) into backing a new national identity that was closely related to Liberal policies. So "Liberals Good" is basically taught to all school children east of Winnipeg.
Switching to Carney allowed them to create some space from the unpopular policies. Most of which are probably going to continue.
This is actually a very interesting topic. It's surprisingly easy and common for Canadians to not follow what's happening in Canada too closely.
Canada has two cable news networks, run by CBC and CTV.
What's the most popular cable news network? CNN.
Plus the Liberals ramped up subsidies to news media in 2018, so reporters have a strong financial incentive to stop the Conservatives from getting in.
As a result people tend to be less aware of problems than you'd expect. Things sort of have to penetrate their social networks to become aware of them.
Also the age breakdown is interesting.
https://x.com/JackPosobiec/status/1918071839365980483/photo/1
The Liberal victory came from voters aged 55+. People who are much less concerned about things like housing affordability. Also they probably figure that staying the course until they die will be less painful for them personally than making dramatic changes.
More options
Context Copy link