Transnational Thursday is a thread for people to discuss international news, foreign policy or international relations history. Feel free as well to drop in with coverage of countries you’re interested in, talk about ongoing dynamics like the wars in Israel or Ukraine, or even just whatever you’re reading.
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Notes -
Conclave update for this week: The conclave will start on May 7 with mass at 10:30(Rome time) and the first round of voting at 4:30. Only one round the first day, four rounds per day on subsequent ones. 133 cardinal electors have been certified as voting in the conclave. The May 7 start is in itself something of a loss for Cardinal Parolin, who had been pushing for a May 5 start.
We're still in pre-conclave maneuvering. It looks like cardinal Parolin's candidacy is basically sunk at this point; he's made a bad impression by both portraying himself as a pope already, and also a janky celebration of the mass. He had a health scare yesterday but that's probably a smaller factor. This matches the predictions of the FSSP's sources. Those same sources report that cardinal Pizzaballa has a good shot if he can win over the establishment moderates in the first world- people like Dolan etc. We haven't seen a lot from that wing of the cardinals. They still 'expect' a first world, older(75+), back-bencher cardinal who is 'theologically orthodox and not close to Francis'- to use the present euphemism- as the eventual victor, however.
It's simplistic to graph cardinals on a straightforwards progressive to reactionary axis- although you can do that, going from Hollerich at the far left to Sarah at the far right- and there are other factors that are as important ideologically if not more so. The average cardinal is not an ideological voter, although he is tired of pope Francis's approach.
https://infovaticana.com/2025/04/29/eijk-y-sarah-levantan-el-vuelo-en-las-congregaciones-del-lunes/ The two interventions(speeches intended to influence the direction of the conclave given during preparatory sessions; these are typically short and are given at set times) most influential on the cardinals were given by Eijk and Sarah, both speaking of the need for the Church to grapple with its internal issues before prioritizing a particular relationship with the world. These cardinals are more or less allies, although they hit different notes. I've been told that they also spoke of the need for church unity on essential questions, echoing interventions given by respected retired cardinals. This probably sets the stage for Cardinal Czerny(progressive representing the 'continuity with Francis' faction) criticizing the other cardinals' desire for unity(https://www.catholicworldreport.com/2025/05/01/unity-and-a-new-papacy/). Just generally the faction emphasizing continuity with Francis has not been optimistic about their chances in public statements. Gossip and hearsay says that the cardinals intend to be very deliberate to avoid a Francis II. This may point to a long conclave.
Cardinal Becciu has agreed not to attempt to participate in the conclave. Cardinal Puljic will not be present in person due to health issues, but will be voting from the Casa Santa Marta, and three cardinals will be sent to collect his vote for every round(three cardinals is standard procedure, but voting from the Casa Santa Marta is not; the college of cardinals is the supreme legislative body during the sede vacante period and can change the rules to accommodate things like this).
How do people track all this stuff? Are there anonymous polls of cardinals? I thought it was supposed to be secret
The cardinals are indeed sworn to secrecy, but the pré-conclave discussions are attended by secretaries and aides who are not.
During the conclave itself the black smoke/white smoke reported on the AP is the most information anyone can get regardless of connections because the cardinals(and whatever staffers are not cardinals; most secretaries will be excluded) are sequestered and provided directly by the Vatican. But until 10:30 AM on may 7, the staffers come from cardinalatial retinues and have full freedom to come and go as long as they get their day jobs done.
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