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Uh, doesn’t India have gigantic conventional superiority? Why would Pakistan think they can win a conventional war?
India does have conventional superiority through sheer force of numbers, yes, but I wouldn't call the margin gigantic necessarily -- a significant amount of Indian forces are located away from the Pakistani border, and Pakistan does have some technological advantages with modern Chinese and semi-modern American missiles and radars that can outrange Indian kit, at least under certain circumstances. This appears to have come into play already -- French intelligence has confirmed that one Rafale fighter was indeed shot down, and it's looking increasingly credible that at least one or two other Indian jets were shot down during the Indian strike mission and/or in air-to-air fighting over Kashmir, as well. Relatedly there is strong evidence that Pakistan deployed Chinese-made PL-15 missiles as part of their counter-air operation, the first use of the type in combat -- these are more or less state-of-the-art missiles, at least comparable to the American AMRAAM and quite possibly superior, including modern radar/seeker tech that is supposed to be more effective against countermeasures than older weapons. They are likely superior to anything India can field and, at least on paper, represent a qualitative jump from Pakistani capabilities in past conflicts.
So, I do think India would win pretty decisively in a truly full-scale war, but Pakistan may think they can bleed India enough on the way up the escalation ladder that India will get off the ladder before the war reaches the scale where India's numerical advantage comes fully into play. This is not a gamble I personally would bet my country on, but Pakistan's government is notably a dysfunctional autocracy and the public appears to be swept up in nationalistic war fever (and the same applies to India, albeit a bit less dysfunctional and a bit less autocratic); these are not conditions that lead to cautious decision making.
Notably, as of now Pakistan is still publicly vowing to retaliate for the Indian retaliation -- if they choose to escalate with a more deadly counterattack it is very hard for me to see India backing down absent a concerted effort from foreign countries (or perhaps the UN) to bring the two sides to the table. The US has halfheartedly warned India to "exercise restraint" but has been generally staying out of it; the UN has issued boilerplate calls for restraint and negotiation but nothing more; Chinese officials have been meeting with the Pakistani government in Islamabad, but it is not clear what they were discussing and China has not made overt public declarations of any formal stance on the war.
Edit: actually, while the majority of Pakistani statements have continued to vow further revenge, the defense minister did at one point make a statement saying essentially that Pakistan was ready to cease hostilities if India was. It is not clear, at least to me, if this is supposed to imply they will be ready for a ceasefire after a retaliatory strike against India or instead of such a strike; I am also not sufficiently keyed-in to Pakistani media to be confident if this implies some kind of disagreement within the Pakistani government or if it is entirely compatible with their otherwise-bellicose posture. But there does seem to be some hope of cooler heads prevailing in Pakistan.
India has the Meteor, which I believe should be [contingent on public figures being ~true] comparable to if not superior than an export PL-15 in range (Pakistan gets downgraded stuff, I believe) unless the Indian Meteor is also downgraded. The Meteor's ramjet should give it an edge in certain circumstances, but I don't think the Meteor has an AESA seekerhead, and I believe the PL-15 does, so that definitely gives the PL-15 an edge of its own.
I didn't know India used Meteors, thanks for that -- so they do have range -- but yes the AESA seeker radar is what I believe gives the PL-15 its edge over India's air-to-air arsenal. I'll confess to not having much knowledge of how modern radars actually work in detail (I know what AESA means conceptually but not much about the implications in context) but my understanding is that it gives a significant improvement against countermeasures compared to older weapons.
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