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The nasty part here is that a lot of the hazards you mention have ceiling effects that allow defectbots to ignore them at the margin. A career criminal can't have his income garnished because all his income is off the books, he can't have his career damaged more than it already is because he already fails background checks and criminals don't care, and he can't have his dating prospects damaged because they already consist solely of "women who don't realise, or don't care, that he's a career criminal" (with admittedly an exception for time he actually spends in jail if he's caught raping/beating his girlfriend).
This is a special case of the more general issue that if you grade on a strict pass/fail with stringent conditions for passing, then the middle road and low road lead to the same place, which is a big problem if you want people to pick the middle road over the low road (and for all values of "you" that are thinking consequentially from the standpoint of society, you do; you are not God making a judgement after the end of the universe, which means that simply exterminating everyone who didn't pull off the high road tends to end badly and even if somehow implemented is likely to kick you below replacement).
Yep.
There's a 'clumping' effect on the bottom end when there aren't strong incentives to stay in the middle road (due to that not getting you what you want, and STILL carrying the risk of losing it all) and its too hard to climb to the top rungs (without a ton of help).
You either have so much wealth that you can afford to lose tons of it, or you have like NO wealth, and don't give a single care due to having nothing TO lose.
And as you indicated (and as young men are noticing...) if you can't catapult yourself to the former position of fuck you, then it starts making MORE sense to drop down the to latter, lower position, because at least you can do what you WANT to do, rather than play by rules you can't change and punish you heavily.
If the middle position is the only one where punishments matter, very few will want to stay there, even if its overall best for the collective.
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