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Culture War Roundup for the week of May 19, 2025

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Two Israeli embassy staff were shot dead late yesterday night as they were walking just outside the Capitol Jewish Museum. The Capitol Police have identified the suspect as one Elias Rodriguez of Chicago. Reportedly, Rodriguez shouted “Free Palestine” as he executed the couple, who were engaged to be married.

I have been meaning to write a “Civil War vibe-check” top-level post. My intuition was that the danger of such a nightmare scenario was receding, having peaked twice, with the mass-shooting at the Congressional baseball team practice game, and the George Floyd Riot/January Sixth Riot forming a stockbroker’s double blow-off top before a consistent decline in risk.

Recently multiple events have made me question this. The Zizian cult killings, the suicide bombing in Palm Springs over the weekend, and now this, make me feel like something is perhaps coming. Maybe not a full Syrian Civil War, but at least another Days of Rage similar to the period in the 1970s after the great wave broke and began to recede. I would appreciate hearing anyone’s thoughts.

Israel bombed an embassy a few months ago and has a long history of fighting dirty. They shouldn't be surprised that they get the same treatment back. The expectation can't be that they can finance terrorism, assassinate people, and bomb embassies and then not get the same back.

I will go out on a limb and say that I do not consider the Israeli airstrike against an Iranian general in Damascus all that bad.

Attacking an embassy is both an act of war against the host country and the country running the embassy.

Killing a general, his staff, and civilian Iranian embassy employees alongside two Syrian civilians (a mother and her child) is not great, but it is pretty tame both in the context of the Syrian civil war and compared to what Israel considers acceptable civilian casualties when taking out Hamas leaders in Gaza.

There is also a point to be made that this probably was a causal factor in the collapse of the Assad regime which happened in the same year, ending (hopefully) a decades long civil war.

Now, if you show me that the two Israelis which were killed were instrumental in the Israeli military efforts, perhaps tasked with sourcing US weapons, and the attacker picked them for that reason, then I will grudgingly grant you that they would have been acceptable targets from Iran's point of view.

But based on what I heard, some dude just shot two random embassy employees because he was unhappy with Israel.

Well agreed that compared to Israels other bombings in this war, this event is not so bad. The problems is that Israeli propagandist in the west always try to make every attack on them some major moral and civilizational issue. So playing by their own rules its relevant that Israel has no problem at all attacking an embassy and killing staff there.

There doesnt need seem to be more proof of this claim:

There is also a point to be made that this probably was a causal factor in the collapse of the Assad regime which happened in the same year, ending (hopefully) a decades long civil war.

Than this one:

Now, if you show me that the two Israelis which were killed were instrumental in the Israeli military efforts, perhaps tasked with sourcing US weapons, and the attacker picked them for that reason,

It seems like a case of isolated demand of rigor.

Okay, I will go first. WP:

According to the Canadian Broadcasting Corporation, he was the only Iranian to sit on the Shura, or guiding council, of Hezbollah. According to The Guardian, he was most likely a critical figure in coordinating Iran's relationship with Hezbollah in Lebanon and the Assad government of Syria.

Are you arguing that the main target was actually just a foot soldier, or a civilian, or that Hezbollah had not been used to prop up the Assad regime?

Given that eight times more people were killed in the Israeli airstrike than in the shooting, you don't even have to find a source claiming that one of the people shot was the main military liaison between the US and Israel. If the victims were in charge of procuring small arms from the US and the shooter had picked them for that reason, I would concede that this was purposeful violence.

(All of this is discounting that there is an obvious difference between the military leadership in autocratic countries and stable democracies. In autocratic countries, a powerful general is a coup risk, so you want someone with a close personal relationship to the leader, think Crusader Kings. In a stable democracy at peace, there is a functionally unlimited supply of loyal and competent military leaders. If Iran managed to blow up the top ten military leaders of the US, this would not hamper the effectiveness of the US military very much.)