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Culture War Roundup for the week of June 9, 2025

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If you say "it's okay for the AI to do as poorly as a poorly performing human", you'll end up concluding that even an Eliza program can do better than a drunk human who can barely type out words on a keyboard. And if you say "the AI only needs to exceed a top human at a few tasks", then a C64, which can run a simple calculator or chess program, would count as a general AI.

People are not cherrypicking. What they are doing is like the Turing test itself, but testing for intelligence instead of for "is like a human". People asking questions in a Turing test can't tell you in advance which questions would prove the target is a computer, but they have implicit knowledge that lets them dynamically change their questions to whatever is appropriate. Likewise, we don't know in advance exactly what things ChatGPT would have to do to prove it's a general intelligence, but we can use our implicit knowledge to dynamically impose new requirements based on how it succeeds at the previous requirements.

Saying "well, it can write, but can it code" is ultimately no different from saying "well, it can tell me its favorite food, but can it tell me something about recipes, and its favorite book, and what it did on Halloween". We don't complain that when someone does a Turing test and suddenly asks the computer what it did on Halloween, that he's cherrypicking criteria because he didn't write down that question ahead of time.

Well, I don't think your analogy of the Turing Test to a test for general intelligence is a good one. The reason the Turing Test is so popular is that it's a nice, objective, pass-or-fail test. Which makes it easy to apply - even if it's understood that it isn't perfectly correlated with AGI. (If you take HAL and force it to output a modem sound after every sentence it speaks, it fails the Turing Test every time, but that has nothing to do with its intelligence.)

Unfortunately we just don't have any simple definition or test for "general intelligence". You can't just ask questions across a variety of fields and declare "not intelligent" as soon as it fails one (or else humans would fail as soon as you asked them to rotate an 8-dimensional object in their head). I do agree that a proper test requires that we dynamically change the questions (so you can't just fit the AI to the test). But I think that, unavoidably, the test is going to boil down to a wishy-washy preponderance-of-evidence kind of thing. Hence everyone has their own vague definition of what "AGI" means to them; honestly, I'm fine with saying we're not there yet, but I'm also fine arguing that ChatGPT already satisfies it.

There are plenty of dynamic, "general", never-before-seen questions you can ask where ChatGPT does just fine! I do it all the time. The cherrypicking I'm referring to is, for example, the "how many Rs in strawberry" question, which is easy for us and hard for LLMs because of how they see tokens (and, also, I think humans are better at subitizing than LLMs). The fact that LLMs often get this wrong is a mark against them, but it's not iron-clad "proof" that they're not generally intelligent. (The channel AI Explained has a "Simple Bench" that I also don't really consider a proper test of AGI, because it's full of questions that are easy if you have embodied experience as a human. LLMs obviously do not.)

In the movie Phenomenon, rapidly listing mammals from A-Z is considered a sign of extreme intelligence. I can't do it without serious thought. ChatGPT does it instantly. In Bizarro ChatGPT world, somebody could write a cherrypicked blog post about how I do not have general intelligence.

The Turing Test ain’t simple pass/fail. It doesn’t specify an amount of time for the interaction, for instance, or whether it iterates, or whether people know the characteristics of the AI. I’d say that current LLMs could fool Turing himself, on the first go, but given a few iterations and enough time he’d notice something was up. Look at how our mods play spot the LLM. This would be a blanket yes/no if the Turing Test were pass/fail, but in reality it’s an evolving thing.