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Small-Scale Question Sunday for December 4, 2022

Do you have a dumb question that you're kind of embarrassed to ask in the main thread? Is there something you're just not sure about?

This is your opportunity to ask questions. No question too simple or too silly.

Culture war topics are accepted, and proposals for a better intro post are appreciated.

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Any thoughts on what stock one ought to buy right now, as someone whose gradual getting spooked by AI advances has finally passed a critical threshold, in order to be in a good position in the specific subspace of possible futures where most humans have become economically worthless but the current system of contracts and titles remains intact?

Specifically, the "the vast majority of the economy is one or a handful of AI conglomerates, plus whatever industry is required to keep them running; whoever has a share may be less screwed" scenario. I can just about think of Google (for DeepMind) and Microsoft (who seem to be OpenAI's closest openly traded partner), and maybe Nvidia if one expects their GPUs to continue being unrivaled as hardware platforms.

I just bought some NVIDIA today, I think it's the spade in the gold rush analogy. If you don't know where the gold is, sell the spades. TSMC is like the steel mill that makes the head of the spade. Important but it does a lot of other stuff too. And there are certain risks to its existence - one could say the steel mill is in contested Alsace-Lorraine/Elsass-Lothringen.

That's not to say NVIDIA has no competition, there is this other company starting up that's competitive in training big models on their own hardware. It's called Cerebras but it's not a public company. Google also has their own chips.

https://www.semianalysis.com/p/gpt-model-training-competition-heats-email-title&publication_id=329241&post_id=88069979&isFreemail=true