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Do you think that Israel bit more than they chew with the Iran situation? I doubt they have the logistics for sustained campaign and it is far from sure that they will be able to destabilize the regime or plunge it in a civil war enough for the time that they have.
This isn't a war between Israel and Iran. It's Netanyahu vs Khamenei. 2 unpopular leaders living on borrowed time. (1 literally, 1 figuratively).
Netanyahu wants to leave behind a legacy. 'Securing Israel's safety from nukes for a generation' seems to be it. Khamenei cares less about regime change per se, and more continued existence of Iran as a clergy driven autocracy. Khamenei has consolidated power for 35 years. His succession struggle was bound to be full of conflict. This is before 2025, when his civilian and IGRC right hand men both passed away. His priority is for that successor to be one of the clergy and not the armed forces. (Armed forces != IRGC) (I don't believe an arab-spring-like color revolution is on the cards).
Iran and Israel will survive with limited damage to civilian infrastructure. Regime change is likely to be a good outcome for both nations. Over their long reigns, neither leaders have acted in their nation's best interest. What's at stake is which leader's legacy will be remembered as a positive one.
At this moment, Netanyahu looks to be succeeding. Sure, his actions have fanned the flames of antisemitism, but he won't be blamed for it. On the other hand, if Khamenei gets a non-clergy successor, then this new govt won't remember him fondly. Today, non-clergy succession is the top choice for prediction markets.
To your point, if Khamenei was in good health, then Israel would not have been able to get much done. Instead, they're adding a straws to a weary camel's back. Khamenei is old. His chosen successor Raisi is dead. Khamenei's son is weak and beholden to IRGC, who've endured the biggest losses over the last few days. (intentional by Israel). The youth only knows this regime, and doesn't share the previous generation's fervent hatred towards Shah or the US. Lower religiousness means lower allegiance to the clergy. That's a lot of dry straw. The spark is all that's missing. (I like my malaphors)
Trump looks to be in a good mood to make 'deals' and doesn't have the same obsession with democracy that the liberals have. If Iran agrees to audits of its nuclear sites, then I can see Trump backing a less hostile (ie. non clergy) regime. Israel would agree to any non-IRGC leader as long as Iran is under nuclear surveillance. In contrast to liberals, Trump doesn't need this regime to look like a liberal democracy. This gives Iran a lot of leeway for what the successor regime can look like. IMO, the obsession with democracy was the downfall of liberal/neo-lib orchestrated revolutions of the last 30 years.
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