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So, in your view, is the current advice about "if you don't want to be laid off in the next round of IT job cuts, make sure you're promoted into a management role" since that seems to indicate "just programming on its own, no matter how good you are, is not job security"?
I do take your point about specific knowledge, but the problem there too is that if you know all about how to keep the janky, tricky systems of Company X running, little of that transfers over to Company Y which has a totally different tricky, janky system.
Lowest level managers are prime candidates for downsizing.
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If you want my opinion, keeping your IT job is mostly about working for the right company (responsible, hasn’t overhired, good market prospects) in a critical and productive, usually backend, capacity - not on puff projects funded by zero interest debt. Easier said than done, I know, but the team I’m currently on has survived multiple rounds of layoffs at my company completely untouched. In software, boring is extremely good. Management is not immune to cuts, on the other hand.
You’re right that domain knowledge transfer is a serious problem in tech. The one thing I’d say is: the best people tend to be good by virtue of their ability to learn fast and learn as a function of general principles over rigid specifics. I personally haven’t had much trouble moving into new jobs or domains. Then again, I wasn’t even a programmer initially - I learned on the job. So maybe I’m not the best example, since my case is already weird.
Overall, I empathize with pretty much any cynical take on big industry and tech in particular. Industry leaders have not shown great judgment over the past couple decades. That said, the best advice is always some combination of work on your skills and build good relationships, and be prepared to pivot if it comes to it. The one good thing about the modern industry is that your individual labor does have value and you can take the value of your labor where you want - it’s fundamentally inalienable. Keeping that idea close to heart helps you stay sane.
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