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Culture War Roundup for the week of June 23, 2025

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You're requiring undue burden of proof.

"Undue" relative to what? Again, I'm not arguing that intelligence isn't mediated by genetics, I'm just arguing that we laack sufficient evidence about specifically race-based genetics. And as per your other comment, while larger sample sized would be nice the problem remain the potential for confounders. At the root of the problem is the fact that races are essentialy pre-confounded; we know for a fact that people of different races lead different lifestyles of consistent but largely non-genetic reasons; any of those things will interfere with any attempt to say a particular trait is caused by genetics. Hell, take skin tone for example. We know unambiguously that genes mediate skin tone, but we also know for a fact that any attempt to survey ethnicities by skin tone and attempt to precisely predict the genetic effect would be confounded by the effect of distribution over latitude and likelyhood to tan.

But it looks like most of in-population variation is just slightly broken gene variants of ideal brain devised by evolution for current moment.

If you actually believe this, you should be more skeptical of hbd, not less. if there's one perfect brain, and iq is just about how close you are to it, the only selection pressures that would matter would be demerits for isolated populations with tight social structures that allow people with genetic defects to survive and breed. That looks like the exact opposite of the smart-jews HBD hypothesis.

think that if you were posting this from pro-HBD pespective, someone could write: A Racist Poster Compares Africans To Wolves By Implication.

I'm not on the motte because I'm interested in being politically correct.

It would make sense to compare teams made of people with similar IQ than than loners.

That we should be testing groups is well taken, but the "similar iq" part i disagree with. Even most nuclear families have significant IQ variation. In particular, I think that when resources (food, parental investment, status) are scarce, groups end up adopting tactics that concentrate iq gains in a few individuals (like by feeding the chief's firstborn son better food and working hard to educate him) while the rest are allowed to be dumber. Also, the "smartest" genes are probably relative to body dimensions... Maybe a gene that causes you to grow more neurons on average is best when combined with genes that predispose you to have a big skull, but actually gives you iq reducing mental illness if poor nutrition or being born female gives you a small head.

Relative to what normal rationalism would say.

we know for a fact that people of different races lead different lifestyles of consistent but largely non-genetic reasons

The "controversy" is not about what they do in ancestral lifestyles but whether they can function same in WEIRD societes now. So a between-sibling GWAS of persons born in WEIRD society and one or both parents are mixed-races would find answer.

if there's one perfect brain, and iq is just about how close you are to it, the only selection pressures that would matter would be demerits for isolated populations with tight social structures that allow people with genetic defects to survive and breed.

Why? Selection eliminates deleterious alleles from population. What constitutes deleterious depends on current environment. So you may find some population where selection for IQ-lowering alleles intensified but selection for bad running (or immune systems) relaxed.

I'm not on the motte because I'm interested in being politically correct.

That was my attempt to make a joke.

That we should be testing groups is well taken, but the "similar iq" part i disagree with.

Why? I'd agree that non-equal allocation of IQ points can be better, but the premise was to test different IQs. Btw, it might get that you allocated too many IQ points in a person who has no leadership qualities and that might be worse if IQ points were allocated equally.

So a between-sibling GWAS of persons born in WEIRD society and one or both parents are mixed-races would find answer.

It would find a very limited version of the answer. Again, even if you find that the measured relative average IQ difference between groups A and B is caused by genetics, it doesn't necessarily prove that the measured relative average IQ difference between group C versus A and B is due to genetics. Even if you find a result that applies to "nigerian immigrants in america" the selection effects of immigration would invalidate extending the result to "nigerians in nigeria."

Why? Selection eliminates deleterious alleles from population. What constitutes deleterious depends on current environment. So you may find some population where selection for IQ-lowering alleles intensified but selection for bad running (or immune systems) relaxed.

If there's still a single target "golden brain" it doesn't matter how weak or strong IQ selection effects are for it-- every group will aproach it asymptotically over time, though some groups will take longer than other. For IQ to be traded off versus, say, faster running, you need to start thinking in terms of the actual tradeoffs for having big brains-- mainly metabolic, but also head size, injury likelyhood, pregnancy difficulty, etcetera. And when you start thinking about the biological tradeoffs, it becomes obvious that,

  1. The very recent past has had extremely different selection pressures than the agricultural and hunter-gatherer past
  2. There is massive intra-race variation between subpopulation lifestyles and when they entered, as a cohort, the agricultural and modern eras

Therefore, at least naively, any aggregate difference between races due to a hypothesized selective effect should be present itself even more sharply within a race. If you want to explain IQ differences between whites and blacks as being caused by earlier or later starts to settled agriculture, feudal societies, democracy, modern medicine, etcenera-- then those same differences should be that much more visible between, say, Italians and Poles, or Madagascarans and Kenyans.

I can't wholly rule out places where this dynamic actually seems to appear-- as in the sharp difference between Azkenazi jews and everyone elser. But at least so far, we've explained only a tiny part of sub-racial and inter-racial IQ differences this way.

Why? I'd agree that non-equal allocation of IQ points can be better, but the premise was to test different IQs.

If we want to test whether IQ is a good measure of individual intelligence, we want to hold as much as possible as a control versus either modern society or some primitive state of man so we can be sure that it's IQ specifically that's making the difference. Putting people with similar test-taking performance may or may not be a confounder. Probably random group allocation (and group sizes) would be ideal for eventually extracting the most interesting observations. Of course doing that on large enough scale to get good data for every possible combination of IQs is combinatorially impossible, but this whole thought experiment is impossible anyway.

Even if you find a result that applies to "nigerian immigrants in america" the selection effects of immigration would invalidate extending the result to "nigerians in nigeria."

Once we know how genetic variants that Nigerians have affect IQ in f2 hybrids in WEIRD countries, we can get much smaller samples of genomes of Nigerians in Nigeria and extrapolate what IQ they would have if brought to WEIRD countries.

it doesn't matter how weak or strong IQ selection effects are for it-- every group will aproach it asymptotically over time

No, evolution doesn't work this way. There always has to be stabilizing selection against novel deleterious mutations. A stronger selection on a gene means weaker selection on another gene. E.g. Europeans have higher rates of color blindness than Africans even if it's single-gene with no tradeoffs. And if "ideal brain" is heterozygous then selection no matter how strong will never reach it.

The very recent past has had extremely different selection pressures than the agricultural and hunter-gatherer past

our industrial society is about 200 years old (much less in many parts of world) and had much weaker selection than past, so it barely affected genetic IQs, except, maybe, reducing inbreeding. In some ways IQ is more important in modern society than past, but it doesn't result in people having more children, so no selection.

then those same differences should be that much more visible between, say, Italians and Poles,

in probably existed at some point in past Poland and Italy had difference because Italy became agricultural earlier. Now effect of agriculture reached saturation.

HBD people think that Papuans have higher IQs than Australian aborigines, and that most of remote branches of Africans like pygmies and San have lower IQs than agricultural Africans, so this holds.

or Madagascarans and Kenyans.

Do you know Madagascar was populated long after agriculture and its population originated from mix of agricultural SE Asians and agricultural Africans?

But at least so far, we've explained only a tiny part of sub-racial and inter-racial IQ differences this way.

A large part seems to be explained by Cold Winter Theory. We can't always explain how species evolve -- there might be long stages of little change and short pulses of rapid change, this doesn't mean that there are no differences.

Once we know how genetic variants that Nigerians have affect IQ in f2 hybrids in WEIRD countries, we can get much smaller samples of genomes of Nigerians in Nigeria and extrapolate what IQ they would have if brought to WEIRD countries.

Makes enough sense to me. That's exactly the kind of empirical question I want answered before I start accepting the conclusions of racial IQ science.

No, evolution doesn't work this way.

It doesn't work that way when there's no optimal phenotype. But sharks and dolphins have both converged in bodyplan quite a bit despite a massive disparity in how long they've been in the water. Yeah, there would be some noise-- it's highly unlikely that every population has exactly the same average IQ, and random mutations taking a while to filter out is a plausible source of noise. But if you want to postulate that there are different selection effects on intelligence, then optimal intelligence has to look different for any given group, which rejects the premise of a single "golden brain" that every group is optimizing for.

and had much weaker selection than past,

I'm embarrassed to be citing my dad here, but he is an expert (at least in plant genetics). And he's told me that population growth increases selection effects. Beneficial alleles reach fixation faster. (I used to think otherwise, that selection was strongest when populations shrunk, but he convinced me to believe otherwise.)

Therefore we can assume that the industrial age has been an era of increased selection. That doesn't mean selection specifically for IQ, but I wouldn't rule it out. I'm aware that implies we should find IQ differences between populations who were late or early to industrialize, and I'm not saying we haven't, or wont-- just, as always, I'm being cautious about assuming our data is valid until it starts pointing to a unified theory of how it all works out.

in probably existed at some point in past Poland and Italy had difference because Italy became agricultural earlier. Now effect of agriculture reached saturation.

This claim that "saturation" has or can be reached is predicate on my accepting this "golden brain" thing that I still haven't, and directly contradicts the "cold winter" theory you mention later.

Do you know Madagascar was populated long after agriculture and its population originated from mix of agricultural SE Asians and agricultural Africans?

No, l was more thinking about how it had an era of feudal kingdoms and metalworking, plus trade relations with the far east.

A large part seems to be explained by Cold Winter Theory.

I would be interested in seeing validation with within-ethnicity IQ variation over climate range... whether Southern Whites are actually dumber than Northern Whites, for example. At a glance I can't rule it out-- California and Louisiana have similar average IQs despite very different ethnic distributions.