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PaperclipPerfector  9mo ago (text post)   31337 thread views

Culture War Roundup for the week of July 14, 2025

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If they go slowly, nationalistic, actually brave Ukrainians will feed themselves to the grinder till there's no one left. A sudden collapse caused by a major offensive would result in far more troublesome people later.

Well at least you're conceding that Ukrainians do not want to be Russians. Is your take that Putin does not want to conquer Ukraine entirely (whether in the immediate term, or mid-term). Did he ever want to? Grinding the Ukrainians down is time-consuming and expensive just to take a few provinces.

ISW are not serious people.

I don't think that's nearly enough evidence to establish that claim.

At the very least, air defense situation.

I meant more of a "in terms of timeline" sense. "Fast" implies we should see things shift "soon." If the air defense situation is deteriorating for Ukraine, then that is evidence in that direction.

The guy who wrote it served as a combat arms officer for a few decades. It wasn't written by Parsi.

I am aware. But I trust this one guy's analysis a bit less than the consensus by default; particularly if he works for an outfit with a clearly identified agenda with some moron like Parsi in senior management. I'm not a Russia/Ukraine specialist. I am an Iran specialist. And I know Parsi is a moron.

he says he believes Russians have better ISR

Well, that isn't true overall, so long as the Western powers are supporting Ukraine on that front.

You seem to be denying that Ukraine is doing better on anything, even with the typical defender's advantage. But, again, if the Russians are consistently outclassing the Ukrainians in artillery, aircraft, missiles, drones, ISR, manpower, equipment, tactics, loss ratios, etc. then why is the war dragging on like this? This is some Iran-Iraq War shit with more drones and fewer prayers.

Based on initial expectations, Russia's performance has been very embarrassing ever since the initial ham-fisted offensive. I definitely thought Ukraine wasn't going to last long without immense, immediate support from the West.

We're at nearly 3.5 years now. What will things look like at the 4-year mark? I'd guess much the same by default, because I don't know either side's breaking point, or if a ceasefire will be established, or just how much support the West will give Ukraine. The defense-advantaged nature of the battle makes it unlikely either side will make a sustainable major offensive breakthrough at any given point.

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