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Culture War Roundup for the week of July 14, 2025

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Welp, it finally happened. However often in the past ten years we've heard about the writing being on the wall (which were coincidentally also closing in), or the other shoe dropping, it's always turned out that Teflon Don was able to escape more or less unscathed. Even January 6th, which by all rights should have ended his political career for good, turned into something he could make hay out of, blaming Democrats for overreacting to what was essentially large-scale trespassing, and playing the what-about game. 24 hours ago I thought the Epstein thing had more legs than any of the other scandals, but I didn't see it as having the potential to end things. Trump had handled it poorly, but there was still a chance that some distraction would arise and the whole thing would blow over.

With the filing of Trump's lawsuit against the WSJ, that chance has ended. With the full understanding that I'm making quite a bold statement, I think this may be the biggest unforced error of Trump's presidency so far, that if Murdock was looking to destroy Trump he played the whole thing beautifully, and this has the potential to bring down the entire presidency (though I'm not predicting that it will). It's almost as if Murdoch set a giant, obvious trap and, spying the bait, Trump ran headlong into it without even stopping to investigate. The correct way for him to have handled the whole Epstein thing would have been to shut up about it. It was a lame conspiracy theory that his base bought into but that had little purchase among anyone important. All that stuff about binders being on Pam Bondi's desk was only news among these people, and even Elon's Tweet didn't move the needle much. It wasn't a major scandal until the DOJ published the "nothing to see here" memo. From there, Trump's totally unnecessary denials only added fuel to the fire. He could have fired Bondi and delayed the whole thing for a couple months while a new AG was confirmed, during which time the matter could have died. But he instead doubled down on her pronouncement, calling half of his base losers in the process for caring about it. The WSJ thing wasn't even particularly damaging considering what else had been out there. So Trump may have sent a bawdy drawing to Epstein containing an oblique message that could have alluded to pedophilia. The story might not have survived the weekend if Trump would have just denied having written it and moved on.

Instead Trump had to sue. Because Trump always has to sue; he can't leave well enough alone. He could have taken the weekend to consult with advisors and attorneys on the best path forward. Any kind of reflection would have made it clear that this was a bad idea. But Trump is impulsive, and wasn't going to wait until Monday to file, wasn't going to give himself a chance to cool down. Get it out Friday. Now he has opened himself up to a world of hurt that he couldn't imagine beforehand. Since WSJ's defense depends on proving that their publication of the material wasn't malicious, proving the authenticity of the alleged letter is paramount. And the best way to prove that Trump can't meet his burden is by getting as much information as possible about his relationship with Epstein. Trump will have to turn over ever email or other communication with Epstein that he has. Trump will have to sit for a deposition where he will be grilled about their relationship. He will have to turn over documents. Everything is on the table, and courts give a pretty wide latitude for discovery in civil matters. And the process proceeds slowly enough that there will be a steady drip of documents that the WSJ will gleefully publish as soon as they get them. This could drag on for years, with new stories monthly about how Trump did this or that with Epstein. I'd be surprised if they don't livestream his deposition.

Unlike previous legal issues, Trump can't claim persecution here since he initiated the proceedings. While this means he also has the power to pull the plug if things get too dicey, it doesn't take much of an imagination to see how that would look. Even now, withdrawing the lawsuit is an admission that the letter is authentic. Dropping it at a later date makes it look like he has something to hide that he doesn't want coming out in discovery. Even the best case scenario, where it is revealed that the letter was a complete fabrication, isn't that great for him, as all he has really done taken one inconsequential piece of "evidence" off of the table. It doesn't make the whole Epstein Files mess disappear. But it will be a tough case for Trump to win, and it will be any tougher for him to prove enough damages to have any effect on News Corp. Is a jury in Miami really going to buy that Trump is 10 billion dollars poorer as the result of that article? But that's unlikely since the legal standard Trump has to overcome is the high as the journalistic standards of the WSJ. Murdoch is no babe in the woods, and he isn't running Buzzfeed. If the WSJ runs an article, one can assume that it was vetted properly, especially if they ran it by Trump for comment first. I don't know how this ends, but this suit just put things into overdrive.

With party discipline in Congress a lot stronger than it was in the Nixon era, there is nothing that can actually stop a second-term President who wants to brazen it out. If the Democrats take control of the House in the 2026 mid-terms (and they probably will) then Trump will be impeached and acquitted. At this point the number of plausibly impeachable things he has done is large enough that the actual charge doesn't really matter.

In terms of public opinion, I think Trump was just correct when he said he could wander down 5th Avenue shooting people and his base would continue to support him - his being an awful person if fully priced in by now and I don't see him turning out to be a kiddie-fiddler as well as all the other stuff is going to persuade anyone who isn't already persuaded. Swing voters know that Trump shouldn't be President, they are just open to the possibility that Dems are worse.

The more interesting question is how the right-wing media ecosystem changes if there is a serious feud between Trump and the Murdochs. Rupert was always an Old School journalist first and a conservative second, and from that perspective filing this type of lawsuit is an unforgiveable sin. Asking for $10 billion is a signal that this is personal for Trump too, rather than using meritless lawsuits as a polite way of requesting a bribe as he did with CBS. I expect this one to run until Rupert dies, and there is a strong possibility that Lachlan is close enough to his father that he will fill obliged to continue it.

His being an awful person is fully priced in by now and I don't see him turning out to be a kiddie-fiddler as well as all the other stuff is going to persuade anyone who isn't already persuaded.

I disagree. Trump’s awfulness had previously been directed at people the MAGA base also had issues with. Illegal immigrants, elite celebrities, Democrats, academics. In the Epstein case Trump is perceived as defending all of those people in the coverup. Now the Trump-branded awfulness is directed at his own supporters—that’s the difference. He called his own supporters losers and weaklings, using the very same rhetorical tactics to shut them up that the base chafed at so strongly when, only a year before, it was Democrats in power doing the same thing. (E.g. covering up Biden’s age-based incompetence with ludicrous claims, ‘cheap fakes’, etc.)

In addition, I think the MAGA base genuinely cares about seeing justice come to the children and young women victimized by this pedophile cabal. This sentiment runs deep among social conservatives. It relates to longstanding scandals/conspiracies involving Bill and Hillary Clinton, Bill Gates, Hollywood actors, rich financiers, and the other archetypal Republican villains for 30+ years. The base won’t let such a visceral scandal pass. This was a central promise of the Trump 2024 campaign. Trump has a real problem on his hands now.

I think the MAGA base genuinely cares about seeing justice come to the children and young women victimized by this pedophile cabal. This sentiment runs deep among social conservatives.

I have a pretty hard time believing anyone with any real power cares about child sexual abuse qua child sexual abuse. And I don't mean this as a partisan claim. The Catholic Church of course had a big visible scandal, but left and right organizations alike prefer protecting power over protecting children. On a smaller scale, it's a common story (and I personally know examples, which, due to my social circle, likely all vote Democrat) for children to report their own parents covering up their abuse at the hands of an adult their parents apparently cared more about protecting than their own child. While reducing the abuse of children sounds like a great goal to, well, probably nearly everyone, in practice calls for it seem to only actually get used as a cudgel against the outgroup, and even then rarely to any significant effect.

I'm not disagreeing with you in broad strokes, but 'protecting young women's sexual purity' is much more of a right wing value. Obviously Epstein is dead and the MAGA base doesn't think he's chilling in Cuba with Tupac, though.