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PaperclipPerfector  3d ago (text post)   13762 thread views

Culture War Roundup for the week of July 21, 2025

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It doesn't work like that. Threats don't have unlimited range and effect.

The US can't go 'back out of Ukraine or we'll attack you'. The Russians would call that bluff. The Russians can't likewise say 'end all arms support tomorrow and Starlink too or we'll nuke X, Y and Z'. The US would call that bluff. In the Cold War, there was discussion over whether the US would really trade New York for Paris with reference to nuclear forces. It is not at all accepted that the US would trade New York for Kiev. Credibility is based on proximity of target, perceived value and the provocativeness of behaviour to be deterred. It depends on many factors.

Those who'd pat themselves on the back over 'very, very obvious game theory' should move onto merely obvious game theory.

It doesn't work like that. Threats don't have unlimited range and effect.

Did I claim they did?

Or are you misreading what I wrote?

The Russians can't likewise say 'end all arms support tomorrow and Starlink too or we'll nuke X, Y and Z'. The US would call that bluff.

Have you not observed various rightwingers very, very concerned about calling that bluff?

I'm not making up a guy to get mad at. Very real thing.

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2025/jun/04/ukraine-russia-nuclear-war-fears

https://time.com/7295939/russia-iran-israel-us-war-nuclear-catastrophe-trump-putin-khamenei/

https://www.theatlantic.com/ideas/archive/2022/12/russia-ukraine-nuclear-war-putin-threat/672491/

It is not at all accepted that the US would trade New York for Kiev. Credibility is based on proximity of target, perceived value and the provocativeness of behaviour to be deterred. It depends on many factors.

No shit. Consider that you're trying to condescend to someone who already knows what you're trying to explain.

Wait, are you a non-American trying to lecture me about how threats and deterrence work? The very nerve.

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