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Notes -
How many people are persuaded by watching a debate?
Popular streamer Destiny once remarked that in a public debate, only 20% are open to having their minds changed (though you can also seed doubt in your opposition's supporters), and he targets the audience with that figure in mind. Pew suggests that only 10% of people in the 2016 election decided their votes during/just after the presidential debates, but 25% said the debates were very important in helping decide who to vote for.
It seems to me that a lot of people have opinions on how large or decisive this group is without actually knowing how many people are in it.
I have background in formal competitive debate (also known, confusingly, as forensics) so my expectations of what a 'debate' should look like are probably categorically higher than most people.
Which is to say, I expect the participants to have agreed upon a 'question' that is actually going to be discussed, and spend a decent portion of the debate hashing the actual meaning of that question out for a bit, THEN going into the actual informational/argument about that question, so we don't end up with two people effectively talking past one another for an hour or descending ever deeper into minutiae whilst evading the larger question that is the actual purpose of the debate.
Likewise, the ability to cite to reliable(ish) sources during the course of the debate should be expected.
And the moderator should be holding people to, e.g. time limits and a certain level of decorum.
So if I were watching that kind of debate, I think I might be persuaded one way or another if I were in the audience.
But 'persuasion' as a broad category wherein someone who was previously undecided on a matter and then comes down on one side or the other, or is convinced to switch their position, goes far beyond the mere content of the debate and includes the social status of the speakers, their charisma/likeability, and indeed even the reaction of other audience members.
So I'm willing to guess there's some number, probably around that 20% mark, of people who might actually watch a debate and have whatever their prior beliefs were changed in some way in favor of one or the other participant.
It just likely won't be due to one side or the other having a stronger argument.
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